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Wednesday, 14 August 2019

Guest Post: Last Forty Neocon Years - Kaput!

Mark Blyth’s Incisive Post-Crisis Takedown: “A Brief History of How We Got Here and Why”

Posted on August 5, 2019 by Yves Smith

Mark Blyth, the Brown political scientist of “The Hamptons are not a defensible position” fame, has a must-watch video of a presentation, A Brief History of How We Got Here and Why, which we’ve embedded below. We’re featuring it despite the lack of a transcript. Even though Blyth presents a fair bit of detail that is familiar to readers, he manages the difficult task of synthesizing it in a way that generates novel observations. It doesn’t hurt that Blyth is also colorful and a high bit rate transmitter. This video is a fantastic way to get people you know who’ve started to develop doubts about orthodox stories about how the economy works to see thing in a different light.

Blyth argues that the world has been through three policy regimes, using computers as an analogy and arguing that like computers, capitalist systems all have the same major components and economic ideology is the “software”. The regime first was the gold standard, which allowed for international capital mobility without inflation, favoring capital over workers. That regime worked from roughly 1870 to World War I. As academics like Peter Temin described in detail, after the Great War, European economies tried to restore the gold standard, and Temin argues that those efforts produced the Depression. The Depression ushered in policy changes which eventually produced the next era, which started after World War II. The policy objective of this era was full employment. Cross-border capital flows were restricted, countries were more autarky-like than now, and governments were economic activists. Blyth quips that no one knew who central bankers were back then.

This era broke down with the 1970s inflation. But Blyth argues that the trigger was that the share of GDP going to labor had become intolerably high to businesses and investors. Inflation also favors labor over capital by eroding the real value of debt. The answer to that was the capital-favoring, globalist, inflation-hostile neoliberal era.

Blyth stresses that what happened after the 2008 financial crisis, which resulted from the failings of the neoliberal regime, the effort to restore the old system, is an unnatural response which will only lead to intensification of the underlying stressors, like rising levels of private debt, greater income inequality, and even more financialization.

Only an economist could see climate change as hopeful. Blyth sees climate change as discrediting the populist right, which has no answers for this problem, and libertarians, who are allergic to state action, when that will not only become necessary but desperately sought after.
I don’t want to diminish your appetite for watching this talk by saying more, particularly since a lot of the fun of a Blyth talk is in his asides where he present things as obvious, and even if you kinda-sorta knew that particular factoid, you probably didn’t have as pithy a formulation as he does.

The video!

Principal K Kristian Siva's of FPM addendum chart:
 

Friday, 21 June 2019

Is Farage The New Soros For The Euro?

George Soros famed from a multi-billion dollar hedge fund as "the man who broke the Bank of England" is a popular narrative of the mainstream financial media.

Frage: the Face of Brexit - An Anti-Hero or Man of The People? (Source: Twitter)

Yet I have not heard the context of the man who broke the British Parliament! Witness the political impasse over Brexit to Easter 2019 and one can deduce that Nigel Farage, the figurehead of the "Leave European Union" movement, did indeed break the House of Commons. He did not make money to the tune of a billion dollars, but gained an ardent reputation against status quo (of which he is admittedly low on the scale).

The Betrayal Of Britain By Incumbent Politicians June 2016-19 (Source: Twitter)

Fund Portfolio Management's principals feel they do not need to deliberate further about the above statement. As an open-minded read of mainstream media - msm - background to "Brexit" clearly indicates. Mr Farage like Mr Soros, believed in fundamental macro tenets, and stuck to his guns when others were merely interested in the ideas that prevailed. What was this fundamental belief? As most financial pundits will know, Mr Soros believed that the exchange rate of the Pound Sterling versus the benchmark German DeutscheMark was fundamentally too high in the Exchange Rate Mechanism. ERM was the fore-runner mechanism which decided the exchange-rates between member states; before the fully-fledged Euro currency that we know today. Equally, whether by design or accident, the EU is an assembly expanding from six equal-wealth member states to what is now a twenty-seven member states (excluding Britain pending Brexit), is and was fundamentally a flawed crrangement.

The flaws of the EU are VISIBLE in its current dysfunction, as well as the benefits accrued to the newer member states in "sweetners. The single pointed flaw is conceptual. Without having a tiered system, how can one-rulebook be applied to 27 disparate countries? Then if there is discretion, like France and most members exceeding the national debt to GDP limit of 60%, then what's the raison d'etre of EU bureaucracy. The much called for reforms of the EU have not happened, which was a reason for UK calling for an EU referendum on leaving or staying. And consequent Brexit, which is still pending at time of writing, voted by the British people.

[Article originally started on 2-May-2019 NOW continued 14-June-2019]

The culmination of Brexit issue is the single most important policy decision of western globalisation of the past 40-50 years and the next 30 years. This is especially important when considered in connection with climate-change. In order to reduce environment damage and the climate damage it seems obvious that we have to put the brakes on economic activity. Implicit or explicity stated. Or what we at FPM suspect, the global economy has to or is shifting or transitioning towards a "green economy". Some are vanguard pioneers in this. Others are in slow realisation while fronting a total denial of the potentially devastating problem: FPM cite the current POTUS and leader of the Western world Donald Trump and his administration. However, politics being by nature a two-faced profession, maybe Mr Trump is slowing the two giant global growth engines via his trade-wars and sanctions spat with China. As much as Brexit-deliverance will disrupt free movement and of goods and people, and thereby reduce carbon-footprint and CO2 emissions.

Another important but seemingly overlooked concern about Brexit deliverance, or mired by propagandists narratives, is "democracy". Defined as the organisation of society decided by the people. Whereas "aristocracy" meant society organised by the elite or best people. Or as FPM believes, we live in an actual society organised for "wealth", known as "plutocracy" but parading as deluded-democracy. FPM know we are right: just look at the scale of the wealth inequality in societies globally. As vividly described in book by Thomas Piketty in "Capital in The Twenty-First Century", or simply searched on internet; example from 2018 passive-article in Guardian newspaper.

The Book Describing Wealth Inequality


The Book Describing Big Government and Big Business Collusion

But democracy or people need to be heard and will indeed be heard on matters of personal and wider passions of mind. That was description of a typical Brexit mentality. Don't interpret FPM's assertion as an opinion, just look at the voting statement of the people of Britain and the EU in the European elections results of May 2019 (more in next paragreph). Again, don't forget that, and start to view or read the shameless manipulation of the voting-results by "propagandist pratts". Who interpret the facts as "win for Green parties" or "win Liberal Democratic". No, no and no! Anyone can interpret facts, for instance, one can justifiably postulate whether we really need another tier of trans-national government for Europe, or elsewhere. While most people do not want more Government, and fed up with existing structures of managing society in the interest of the rich and powerful, we are concerned about the rise of institutional fascism. Not to be confused with populism and acts of democracy like the Brexit or Arab Spring or Gilet Jaunes; but actual instituional people in governments and multi-national corporations, as well as global investors or financiers. Hence why FPM referenced the 1980s book "Friendly Fascism - The New Face of Power in America" by Bertram Gross above.

People voted clearly, at least in England, for the 3-weeks-in-existence, Brexit Party and its figurehead from former UKIP party Nigel Farage. And the dumb-founded establishment are still scratching their monkey-brains and fighting against this populist uprising and revolt by the "demos" vote. "Demos" is the Greek word for people in society. As if further evidence of voting motives, and how Tory MPs in House of Parliament view the issue of Brexit (leaving it or remaining), witness who won the first and subsequent round of voting for the new Conservative leader or would be Prime Minister. At time of writing, Conservative members vote for the final two of Boris Johnson and Jeremy "Msprint" Hunt!

The Outright Brexit Supporter Leads Tory Leadership Race (Source: Twitter)
Yes you got it, a Euro-sceptic and figurehead of the Leave EU campaign Boris Johnson is leading the race.FPM actually rated and follow the diary of a true Brit and Brexit-man John Redwood, Conservative MP for Wokingham since 1987.

While it is true Fund Portfolio Management is about financial perspectives, and less about politicial upheavals, we have been pushing the idea of the fundamental long-term value of the British Sterling Pound versus that of the start-up new-millenia currency the Euro. The procrastination and swaying about clean-cut breakaway from the EU via Brexit, after nearly 3-years to the month (remember 23rd of June 2016 EU Referendum day), has only made the resolve of that vote more impudent and ardent, rather than losing its distinct drive of anti-establishment anti-corporation populist ambition.

Of course the globalist capitalist cabal with the dollar-firepower have been driving down the value of the breakaway nation's currency. The Sterling has de-valued against the US Dollar from $1.50 plus to now being worth only $1.26 to the Pound. It is a similar story versus the Euro: at the Pound's peak-value against the Euro was £1.50 (in early 2004, and even a year before the "#EUref" the value was £1.40 plus), but now the Pound drifting at £1.12 to the Euro. It should be noted that the low for the Pound valuation versus the Euro was during the financial-crisis when on 1-Dec-08 the Pound reached near parity to the Euro, of £1.02 for GBP/EUR. This low for Sterling was way before Brexit was even a word in the lexicon! Therfore Mark Carney, Bank of England  governor and other so-called experts of "Project Fear", are only influencing democratic-concensus towards their global and capitalist agenda, as per their "useful idiot" office in the bigger picture. Mr Carney even apologised for stoking-up fears of Brexit  before the EU referendum in 2016. Having BOTH the leave and remain campaigns lying is material but not unheard of in political pledging.

The Convenient Lies of The So-called Experts About Brexit (Source: Twitter)
FPM's fundamental deep-insight is that the current devaluation of the Pound, in its natural up-down policy-paved-path, may have significant downside to UK tourists to America and Europe. Impact on business is mixed. UK imports become expensive, while exports from UK cheaper. The net effect is determined by whether UK has more exports than imports - our perpetual current-account deficit suggests we have more imports, in terms of goods and services. When most countries pursue the ambition of driving down their currencies to compete internationally on exports, the devaluation-rounds are partially neutralised. As coined in the phrase "the race to the bottom". Only the stand-alone countries with their own currencies, like Switzerland Sweden Norway Denmark and UK in Europe, can eventually buck that trend of raising interest rates and allow their currencies to rise. Hence FPM's medium-term curency-play thesis, which is now a long-term play due to delays in Brexit deliverance. WARNING is that anyone following this forex trade should have long-term warehousing costs for maintaing or rolloing-over position with views about being long Sterling GBP and short Euro EUR. 

In concluding FPM recommendations and remarks, we re-affirm our strong belief that Britain's manner of exit from the European Union is more relevant for the federal European project than domestic impact. FPM feel this is especially true in a world of de-weaponising economic growth objectives in light of climate change emergency. Dont's take our world for it! Read excerpt from story by Politico.EU which cites Mr Carney's apology:


"Leading Euroskeptic backbencher John Redwood, a close ally of Brexit Secretary David Davis, said Carney was right to warn European leaders that Brexit posed a greater threat to their financial stability than to the U.K.’s. Reflecting the increasingly bullish mood among Tory MPs, Redwood said: 'I’m very glad he’s come round to the logic of it. The difficult hand in these negotiations is the EU’s, not ours. We meet all of our objectives simply by leaving.'" [By Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli and Tom McTague via Politico.EU on 1-Nov-2017]




Tuesday, 11 December 2018

Of All The Worlds... Hardly Brexit!

The Background To Today
  
A step towards "The best of all possible worlds" will be determined in the House of Parliament in Westminster, England on Tuesday 11th of December 2018 . The Members of Parliament (MPs), or the entire elected representative MPs of United Kingdom, vote on the 'Withdrawl Agreement' to date. Its importance is the direction of Europe; or at least as far it concerns Britain's membership within the construct of the cganging European Union - EU. 

The above quote in bold parenthese is by German Gottfried Leibniz about "the claim that the actual world is the best of all possible worlds is the central argument in Leibniz's theodicy, (or his attempt to solve the problem of evil)".

The people's referendum vote in 2016 was prounced by the media as significant and given a blended name "Brexit" (known as a portmanteau word) for "Britain Exit(s)".

Since that referendum and subsequent triggering of the formal Article 50 notification to leave the EU in March 2017, Parliament are now at a stage to vote on a framework for the transition period called the "Withdrawl Agreement". As negotiated by the incumbent Government: The Conservative Party lead by Prime Minister Theresa May. 

[STOP PRESS: Tomorrow's Parliamentary Vote Is Off]

The House of Commons Parliamentary vote on the draft Withdrawal Agreement was called off the day before. The reason cited was that the draft terms would have been rejected by the House, and thus delivering a humiliating defeat for the under-siege Goverment led by Mrs May. 

The formal notification via triggering Article 50 started the two-years countdown. In which to define UK's relationship with EU going forward as an non-member. Implying that Britain is supposed to leave the 28 member country union at the end of March 2019. Whatever version of Britain exiting the EU is delivered by the Government and the Parliament is still emphatically up-in-the-air!


Democracy Is Only An Illusion

The prescient message of this article is that democracy is only an illusion. The EU Referendum is the litmus-test case study for that assertion, as concerns the principals at Fund Portfolio Management - FPM. The principals actually collectively suggest "...Hardly Brexit!", as Britain's unresolved exit from the EU persists. FPM surmise that stalling and delay via Brexit process has two important ideological reasons:

Firstly, that the original 2016 people's referendum on the issue was a deliberate political mistake. Handing over a political decision on nationhood to its island-mentality citizens should could and would only have one outcome. Therefore, the entire political class know this unwitting act of democracy decided by former Conservative PM David Cameron, will probably lead to copy-cat requests in future political decisions. If it is not utterly quoshed and debased now as the historic example of democratic and Parliamentary failure. Thus potentially setting the scene for elimination of the political class entirely, as no longer fit for purpose. Which it CLEARLY IS by evidence of delivering Brexit.

So the British government and Parliament are complicit with all political classes in evidencing or showing #BrexitShambles or #BrexitChaos to demonstrate failure of democracy in complex decisions. 

Secondly, and more intuitively the EU is also party to this sham convoluted Brexit process. More often resulting in a "Punch and Judy" show on mainstrean media globally. The theatrics, more than likely intended to demonstrate the futility of other potential EU-member countries looking for the exit-doors again. A decoupling process with any political will on both sides, which could have been achieved quicker.

The Saga of Brexit

In June 2016 the British electorate were offered a referendum to vote on whether they wanted to be "IN" or "OUT" of the EU. After an acrimonious battle by campaigns representing both sides of the bi-option vote, the people (and therefore the country) voted to be "OUT" of the relatively new Union of countries, by a divisively narrow margin of the brave courageous and discontented fool-hardy 52% of voters. 

The United Kingdom nation that pioneered many innovations and wickedness through its British Empire and Industrial Revolution is agains the protagonist of the "Divide-And-Conquer" strategic policies. Not unlike the "Commonwealth countries gaining independence from being a Colony of the British Empire", Britain will NOT be a sub-state of the EU!

Another Powerful Iconic Image From "Leave" Propagandist (Source FPM and Bounce Agency)
Very Graphically Powerful Symbol of The Blended Word  (Source: Twitter)


 
The referendum vote was prounced by the media as significant and given a blended name "Brexit" (known as a portmanteau word) for Britain Exit(s).

Since that EU referendum and subsequent triggering of the formal Article 50 notification to leave the EU in March 2017, Parliament are now at a stage to vote on a framework for the transition period called the "Withdrawl Agreement", as negotiated by the incumbent Government of the Conservative Party. The House of Commons Parliamentary vote which was called off in the eleventh hour, or the day before. The formal notification via Article 50 started the two-years countdown to define UK's relationship with EU. Implying that Britain is supposed to leave from the now 28-member states union at the end of March 2019. 

Whatever version of Britain exiting the European Union is eventually and actually delivered by the Government and the Parliament it will be the best of all worlds. Only by evil conspiritorial design rather than by some probable chance act of public democracy in action. The repeated evidence of the narrative and discourse of a nation, as portrayed in media and the new social media, is very woefully narrow and limited, see below:


The Circus of Brexit: The Ringmaster


The Circus of Brexit: The 'Remoaner' Freak


The Circus of Brexit: The 'Remoaner' Nationalist
The Circus of Brexit:The 'Remoaner' Clowns





Powerful lobbyist forces are at war in the tug-of-nations between the eternal conflicts waged with propaganda to manipulate perceptions and manufacturing concensus of populations. As evidenced by the constant media hysteria and circus surrounding Brexit (only second to Donald Trump's distraction antics in the U.S.A).  Just incidentally and coincidently and most-probably relevantly, there was a B.B.C review / show about the circus-life and its characters featuring amazing acrobats to absurd freaks. Don't forget the cast of clowns peddled out for the circus show. All celebrating the first circus's 250th anniversary in 2018.



Decoupling of Britain from the EU
 
The larger grouping of nations via globalisation would in the main be subject to a singular vision of world policy via its repeated messages forming propagandist framed-narrative and disinformation for the subjected dazed and confused population to witness and discuss. Public house or 'pub' conversations have been contextually broader about the Brexit process and ideology than the tabloid and broad-sheet analysis of so-called 'newspapers' and mainstream political news commentary. The go-between of media and politics are influential lobby groups.
 
FPM wrote earlier that "the narrative and discourse of a nation, as portrayed in media and the new social media, is very woefully narrow and limited"; well here some new additional elements toward the voting behaviour not widely mentioned:

An FPM principal and Brexiteer voted to 'Leave' so as not to be "marginalised in wider-whiter Europe". Krishna of FPM, feels he has just made his way among the British citizenry through the ages, with recent introduction to new influx Europeans. Especially as a former Commonwealth country's citizen living in London, England for 40 years. 

Another perspective of "Remain" believer resident with family in UK pre-freemovement, had the opposite feeling, of wanting to be part of her ancestral continental Europe. She was part of the remain crowd not being legally British to vote in domestic national elections but of European birth. Many like her but British-born were able to vote. So which of these people were the emphatic-voting citizen to vote on 23 June 2016? Duh!

As alluded earlier about the 'singularity of vision', globalisation in its current manifestation is the greatest fear of any expansion of territorial alliances. Admittedly, globalisation in another manifestation can also bring hope. We would be fool-hardy and quixotic to believe establishment figures have anything in mind other than entitlement from the servititude of the much and many. In the economic-wisdom of contemporary Michael Hudson, this was and is known as "rentier capitalism" from the classical idea of economic rent. 

"Economic rent – the excess of price over this “real cost” – is unearned income. It is an overhead charge for access to land, minerals or other natural resources, bank credit or other basic needs that are monopolized." https://twitter.com/Kristian_FPM/status/10706622

FPM advice everyone, including so-called journalists politicians and economists to read his work via his website www.michael-hudson.com.


In this debate and contest about the future of British peoples, in relation to a regionalised grouping of nation states in the EU. Remember the latest incarnation of the EU - forever progressing towards federal Europe - until Brexit is completed, is 28-countries as of last member country Croatia joining on 1-July-2014. A construct originated from just six equally weighted countries in terms of  wealth and population in 1950s. Read the history of the EU and its spurious advocates here.

In this 'colonialism' by any other word like 'federalism', heading towards European regionalisation with ultimate globalisation in mind, the Balkans countries and such former Soviet-sphere satelite states will be culturally over-run with McDonalds, Lidl, "Friends" TV-show lifestyle, poor command of the English language as a second langauge or non-native tongue,

 Tomorrow sees.. prescient piece_Brexit and final version by design and less by accident. May had poisoned chalice taking over - 3 defeats only comparable to James Callaghan heralding Thatcher.
Propagandists at the behest of powerful globalists at work
Mainstream representation narratives (via headlines at least) have been poor viz Twitter; greater debates in pubs somewhat but framed by media so limited
Globalisation and marginalisation pro-Out unspoken reason
Just as the remainershave two good inclu. a lot of the Brits 2nd gen originate from Europe (while 1st gen brits with long residence unable to vote .i n national elections); and Labour ideals of solidarity among workers etc is nonsense or at least double-think as there are certainly Oligopolies and less competition (quote book by The Myth of Capitalism by hfdmgr name)
"michael hudson another world" in search engine resulted in a fictional characher ("Michael Hudson was a fictional character on the NBC daytime soap opera Another World"); using language to muddy the waters eg Ingmar Bergman was muddied by Ingrid Bergman to the non-film enthusiast.


Wednesday, 5 December 2018

The Rotten Financial System - ROT$

The Economics of Things Post-2008

Since the near melt-down of financial system in 2008, which warranted £4.3 trillion of taxpayer / public funds, little has changed in economic fundamentals. Fund Portfolio Management - FPM staffers collectively hoped for the catastrophe to morph into the reversal of neoliberal economic policies, which technically would mean taking control over the money supply.

In essence forward to now, and the global banks are again making above-normal profits at their pre-2008 levels and huge bonuses after paying some hundreds of billions in regulatory fines for their gross wilful sabotage of the economic and financial system. How were executive-level bankers fraudlent? Simply by making irresponsible loans that they were able to take-off their own books or have subsequent accountability for, by packaging and passing on to long-term savers. The corruption of the whole related entourage of businesses and regulatory authourities were vividly shown to be perfunctory and illusionnary, in substance. Shame!

Back then, the trust in the banking system, among bankers themselves, was lost as banks would NOT lend inter-bank, thus the overnight-lending which is lifeline of daily banking operations ceased / froze. (FPM ask whether this really potentially was crippling industry relying on credit lines for their daily operational cash-flows, as cited for using public bail-out funds?). The melt-down was averted by central banks, led by America's Federal Reserves flooding the banking systems with new capital. Printing money out of thin air is one the basic functions of a central bank as lender-of-last-resort.

This "Bernake Parachute" of money onto Wall Street banks practising casino-banking was in stark contrast to the infamous Great Depression of the  1930s, where a stock-market bubble was blown via wreckless margin-lending by banks / brokers. Hindsight reviews of that financial crash suggested that the Federal Reserve - FED did not act quickly to avert a domino effect collapse. So this time round Ben Bernake as central banker and prompted by US Treasury offcial decided and persuaded their elected politicians that they could raid the public coffers to again make solvent the private financial institutions which were bankrupt, which were floundering. Remember, this time round a credit buble had been blown with housing-stock as reference asset. In 1930, the reference asset fuelling the greed for get-rich-quick mania was stocks and shares.

By parachuting money onto Wall Street banks - as a prototype president for averting a severe financial crisis instigated by the FED and with other global central banks to follow - the policy makers DID NOT TAKE CONTROL OF MONEY SUPPLY. Central bankers did the opposite i.e loosening or expanding money supply through what the media euphemistically peddled as  "Quantitive Easing - QE" and numerous other acronyms for basically printing money - i.e. digital records. Control of money-supply meant assuring how much money in a system. Of increasing and decreasing according to the economic situation prevailing. 

This model of robber-baron banking has been around since the beginning of the 20th century (get and read free PDF about the clandestine creation of the FED as model of banking-monopoly in "The Creature From Jekyll Island"). FPM have been disillusioned to see same extractive exploitation of the public entering into the 21st century and the new Millennnium. The authourities, regulations, and legislative-laws that are supposed to act as checks and balances to protect the public are virtual and deliberately non-effective.

Fund Portfolio Management's mission is therefore to now earnestly educate, as opposed to indoctrination as dumb economics in schools, colleges and banks; but to promote the greater good for the public by provoking thought activism of the unfairness of the financial system. Related bretheren of the banking dynasties is the industrial military complex. As well as other industrial-cousins such as oil and gas, travel and transport etc. Taking our cue to from one the greatest activists known to FPM's principal Krishna FPM dub the money-allocating financial system "Rotten Financial System - ROT$".

P.S. note and disseminate the ticker / stock symbol for the rotten financial system; also note the 10th anniversary of the symbolic-gesture of Lehman Bank going-bust marking the "Great Recession", as media-muppets term it.

Friday, 23 March 2018

Why Its Plain To See The Geopolitical Writing On The Wall

Not only does China have state-run newspaper called the "Global Times" but their phenomenal surge economically to the position of second economic power in the world threatens the status quo of the current hegemonic power. Note "power" said not in the plural but singular.

Hence why trade-war onslaught started this month of March 2018 with steel and aluminium tariffs imposed under order of demagogue leader  of the so called "free world"  President Donald; and yesterday he further announced tariffs on $60 billion value of Chinese imports - its official its war! China retaliated with tit-for-tat action of imposing tariffs on only $3 billion on American imports, as reported by CNBC in the link provided above.


While officially an economic war, at the same said President of the United States of America  or USA, announced the biggest ever increase to its military spending. Up US$80 billion to approximately US$700 billion on military spending; or expressed as a proportion of the total spending approved in the Senate in the early hours of Friday, 54% of the total US$1,300 billion expenditure in 2018/19 will be on the industrial military complex.
Of the US$1.3 trillion spending bill passed exigently early Friday, there are some reading between the lines, other than the obvious. 

First of all this bill is also the raising of the "budget ceiling" i.e. how much spending the USA government fiscal deficit will sustain in a given year. As things stand the budget ceiling has today been raised 4 times int total in recent years (as WolfStreet.Com explains here), to avert what has been dramatically described as "government shutdown". So this current raising of the deficit "legislation would fund the government through the end of September". As for thereafter in this unique American legislation designed to ensure fiscal-budget prudence, anyones guess, or great uncertainty.

Remember that earlier this year the national debt of the USA passed the US$21 trillion mark (also described in the WolfStreet article referenced above, and shown in the chart below). This is less significant as a absolute number, with the Dollar as the reserve token currency allowing unprecedented increase in "money printing" (to make historical Weimar Republic period of hyperinflation look restrained),  but reflected as percent of GDP or what America produces, the debt is very unsustainable.
Also as a  consequence of the unsustainable ballooning debt-bubble of government, Trump is perhaps leading us to that one major dire and disastrous outcome - debt default. The caveat is, only if his "America First" protectionism does not lead to sustained growth. But as we have seen over the last 10 years of kicking the debt-calamity into the long-grass, since the credit bubble in financial services, there are other remedies than debt default and debt-destroying inflation; namely near-zero or zero interest rate policy - Z.I.R.P and debt restructuring (the bad debts racked-up by financial services are now American taxpayers debt burden through T.A.R.P and Q.E etc). Who should continue to revolt or cause civil disorder with rage, after sucessive US administrations and policies delivered austerity instead of prosperity for the masses.

 
 This is why China is THE concerning crucial factor in the economic globalisation that we have seen accelerated since the 1980s or last 40 years. Trend of globalisation stopping now is evident, for fear that China grabs the economic growth that is needed in the current G7 countries, to pay-off their debt.

Yet the economic growth solution is hampered in the face climate change concerns. Yes climate change is only too REAL and beginning to be evident as an imminent threat to humanity and the planet. As are economic-growth threat from disruptive technologies that are burgeoning through to destroy traditional trading activities (e.g. shop-front buying and selling versus Internet online markets). Another example of the titans at
 trade war: China's scale of production has massively reduced the price of solar panels as an alternative to expensive fossil-fuel based oil and gas. 

What of the disruption (which is a euphemistic term) to traditional oil and gas exploration extracting refining and distribution industries, from climate-change concerns? The write-down or destruction of these industries' assets, whose stock market values reflect status quo international free-trade policies, will not be merely disruptive! We have seen this month the stock market valuations impact on global steel and aluminium companies.
See the latest research from the CarbonTracker.Org initiative (which investment bank research will not show!): Mind The Gap: $1.6 trillion energy transition risk.

Finally, in the context of what we have discussed above there will begin as covert of subterfuge psychological operations towards a cultural revolution. "America First", mentioned earlier is only the same socio-economic political stance as once great empire hegemony of United Kingdom, who exited the regional union of group known as European Union (which had as it early phase / guise the E.E.C - the European Economic Cooperation), on June 23rd 2016. Now this great tear-away from globalisation via regionalisation, project is named simply "Brexit". Abbreviation for for Britain Exits the European Union.

The cultural revolution in countries will also be "twitching" by the masses of people away from traditional government by politicians, viz. billionaire Trump as President of the USA and Andrej Babis in Czech Republic. Political machinery, which after 40 years of liberal capitalism, a period better known as "neoliberalism", has produced the rise and decline of the middle class, while creating and enriching plutocrats and oligarchs. As represented by billionaire wealth status of the top 1% of global population. Those politicians are dubbed by Fund Portfolio Management's own reputation thesis, NoSmokeWithoutFire, hastag #politiciansRcriminals.

The cultural revolution will also take the form of behavioural changes, as led from not only disruptive industries (whether people like or accept the phenomena that we are put-through for corporations, who define and rule via Pavalov's dogs impulses, most of our lifestyles behaviours), but from controls about freedom of movement of people, and indeed movement of goods. Which in context of free-trade developments THIS month, is supportive of Fund Portfolio management's geopolitical-tension scenario in the near- to medium-term. 

In short any activities which all add to greater carbon emission, and destruction of the planet will be curtailed. As evidence look at the slow economic growth of the last 10 years imposing mass austerity on the many under neoliberalism. That was not by accident, it was by design, in the face of the most important chart to mankind (by kind permission of Nasa below citing all the evidence. Don't take FPM's word for it.


This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct  measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased  since the Industrial Revolution.  (Source: [[LINK||http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/||NOAA]])


 


Thursday, 15 March 2018

Plutocracy Plots With Trump


 

President of the USA Donald Trump: Examplification of Wealth in Politics (Source FPM, Twitter)

[This is an exqusite excerpt and edited narrative used by FundPortfolioManagement to understand explain and interpret the paramount risk of today #Geopolitics other than #climatechange - q.v. footnotes] 

Masterful and arrogant wealth, known as “Plutocracy”, created largely by Government protection of its profits, not content with its domination and influence within a single party of Republicans, had sought to corrupt them both. And to that end had insinuated itself into the primaries, in order that no candidates might be nominated whose views were not in accord with theirs. Such was the political socio-economic system of American democracy that manifested in turns the “Capital Crook” Clintons and “Black Lives Matter” Obama.

By the use of all the money that could be spent, by a complete and compact organization and by the most infamous sort of deception regarding their real opinions and intentions, Plutocracy had succeeded in electing its “Apprentice Trump” creature to the Presidency. There was no longer a need for the middle-men “politiciansRcriminals” at the White House. Plutocracy had a “corruption fund” of millions of dollars with which to mislead those that could be misled, and to debauch the weak and uncertain.


Plutocracy had a marvelous aptitude for political manipulation and organisation, and with President Trump’s malversation they forged a subtle chain with which to hold in subjection the natural impulses of the people. Sometimes the public had been mistaken as to the true character of their Presidential office. “Wealth” or “the interests” was openly for or against certain men and measures.
 

Trump’s first move was to confer with Plutocracy, the high priests of finance, and unfold his plan to them, explaining how essential was secrecy. Plutocracy’s influence throughout commercial America was absolute. Their wealth, their ability and even more the sum of the capital they could control through the banks, trust companies and industrial organisations, which they dominated, made their word as potent as that of a monarch.
 

Trump then transferred these corruption-fund amounts to the private bank of his son-in-law perhaps, who would then become final paymaster. The result was that the public had no chance of obtaining any knowledge of the corruption fund or how it was spent. The plan was simple, the result effective. He had no one to interfere with him. It was a one man power which in the hands of one possessing ability of the first class, is always potent for good or evil.
 

Not only did Trump win the Presidency, but he also planned to bring under his control both the Senate and the Supreme Court. He counted upon having a good majority of the Senate, because there were already fifty-one Republican Senators upon whom he could rely in any serious attack upon corporate wealth. As to the Supreme Court, of the nine justices there were three that were what he termed "safe and sane," and another two that could be counted upon in a serious crisis. Then there would be an easy working majority.
 

Trump’s plan contemplated nothing further than this. His intention was to block all legislation adverse to the interests. He would have no new laws to fear, and of the old, the Supreme Court would properly interpret them. The President was the centre, and from him radiated everything appertaining to measures affecting "the interests".

Footnotes:
Get Ready for the First Shocks of Trump’s Disaster Capitalism -Naomi Klein - January 24 2017

Thursday, 11 January 2018

The Curse Of The Zeitgist: Globalisation Trending

You are NOT about to read a script for a B-movie sci-fi of social dystopia!

Instead a joined-up considered exposition  of the present state of our times and "the human condition"; which many many great persons of the past deliberated on in timely fashion (in mind we have George Orwell's epochal "1984" novel, or before that John Stuart Mill (1806-1873) a British philosopher, socio-political economist and civil servant). This text is neither intended as government or corporate propaganda. Whose worker-ants' end-goal is towards changing our mind-sets. Yet for the purpose of intelligent cogitation and reflection of our socio-economic life governed ultimately by politicians - or so we are foolishly led to believe!

As propaganda IS subversive: as defined by its key proponent Edward Bernays below in the opening chapter "Organizing Chaos" from his 1928 treatise "Propaganda"; and if one marries Ivan Pavlov's (1849-1936) behaviour experiments, better known as Pavlov's Dogs; we begin to understand the certitude of mass manipulation through the recent centuries, when we falsely believed we were free of slavery, barononial-tyranny and fiefdoms. However, the forms of "master-servant relationship" has changed, what should not be in doubt is 'plutocracy' still exists today: many today describe it as slavery through indebtedness. Throughout the ages, similar human-conditions of servitude yet different mechanisms and methods of subservience to the few wealthy and powerful strata of society existed.
Edward Bernays 1928 treatise "Propaganda"
To this understanding of propaganda and human-conditioning, there is inductive-information from indirect experience or hear-so-say. That is, how we know what we know and consequently do what we do as behaviour. For this subject one needs to present the mid-18th century British philosopher David Hume's "Problem of Induction".

"Hume identifies two ways understanding (reason) exerts itself: demonstrative and probabilistic. Demonstrative reasoning is deductive; it allows us to draw specific claims from general ideas. Probabilistic (or causal) reasoning is inductive; it allows us to make general claims from specific ones". [Hume, David (1888) ‘Reason and Passion’...]

Deceitful propaganda uses the latter "probablistic" reasoning in facetious ways.  We are indoctrinated as a society rather than as a smaller community by its members, if the globalisation process is accepted; and induction of understanding i.e. what we we know and how we know it, is the basis of the opinion and values a society receives from media in all its various guises, including nowadays as technological social-media. For example, if we take George Lucas's "Star Wars" franchise as being a global phenomena, e.g. as represented by many species of humans and aliens characterised in the films, books etc; then there is widespread potential for mind-control of masses if not billions of the planet's population through subtle but sub-conciously influencing masses (more later on Oliver Stone films). English does translate more often; more so than the most spoken language of China!

Actual Examples Of Globalisation (and why it 'sucks'!)

Language Through Entertainment

Thats was the introduction, now allowing for the examples of globalisation which I find unnerving as it is expressed in todays' crude terms; instead of the 21st century terms some have dreamed of and been told about by scientists and extrapolative-fiction, classically in novels ands books.

Information and language are indelibly linked. If a customer of a hotel asks me "Press this please", as different from "Iron that please", as she hands me her dress to me, as if I am concierge at the hotel. I might understand or not, as the case maybe, but I will at least notice the oddity of how someone has requested the service, compared to how the royal "one" might have requested to have less folds / creases in my clothes/ garment. On many levels the sentence is or would be curious to a mind educated and organised to understand the interplay of  the three-word sentence in numerous interpreted contexts! The obvious similarity in the two-forms is that 'please' has been oddly inserted / stated, when we know politeness has various expressions in varied cultures. Burping is good in some class-circles foreign-cultures, while a grand "faux-paux" in others. Secondly, 'this' was used in one sentence and 'that' used in the opposed 3-word sentence. And finally, I have never used "press this", only "iron that"! Please write to me as to if "social-class" or "dated" usage of "press" usage or if predominantly American used word? I really do not know English language grammar to know, yet I allegedly speak and write it. Also I know as a thumb-rule, and understand that usage make the final definition of acceptability of grammar. If i start saying "press this" for an "ironing" request, I would change from my social-class and age or use American vocabulary. I like how I am perhaps, and not through globalisation.

Then I would identify Hollywood as a source of mass-media and communication for the masses of English-speaking and pseudo-English spoken audience. Already has been mentioned how "Star Wars" is a globally recognised phenomenon. Oliver Stone seem to make epic films of historical events; as if re-telling history in some alternatively interpreted way of the facts - called "artistic license". Mr Stone's selected movie portfolio include Platoon ('86), Born on the Fourth of July ('89), JFK ('91), Alexander (2004) etc. All the films mentioned revealed degrees of political and idealogical controversy, hence the FPM assertion of "alternatively interpreted way of the facts". The Oliver Stone film that ALL financiers will remember is his Wall Street ('87) series of films. As well as Wall Street bankers and bankers globally, the liberals and intellects find pertinent, is the 2010 film "Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps".

Filmed in the aftermath of the 2008 started financial crash and the consequent Great Recession, FPM uses this to show how a global larceny running into trillions of dollars was committed without rousing the angst of the viewing public. In the formulaic happy-ending story-telling of a Hollywood block-buster with its distortions, there is an empyrean truth: that the financial crisis allowed 17 or so "too big to fail" banks and similar financial players benefitted from the greatest transference of wealth in history from the taxpayer-funded the public purse to the so-called free-market private sector financial institutions. Why do you think the "National Debt" of the USA / America and other key countries have ballooned to the tune of trillions of Dollars? This truth paragon could be said to be the crux of the film to rouse the public taxpayer's ire; but instead the director air-brushes over with fantasy about Gordon Gekko's reformation and how he saved his family and donated £100 million to the "Green economy". Happy ending, neatly wrapped was up the story of greatest robbery by todays' robber-barrons.
Mere story telling which ultimately distorts global perspectives of history in the viewers eye is still a lie. The ancient civilisation used to believe that a picture taken of them steals their souls; similarly a "picture steals your soul and time", is also true.