Guest Post: Last Forty Neocon Years - Kaput!

Mark Blyth’s Incisive Post-Crisis Takedown: “A Brief History of How We Got Here and Why”

Posted on August 5, 2019 by Yves Smith

Mark Blyth, the Brown political scientist of “The Hamptons are not a defensible position” fame, has a must-watch video of a presentation, A Brief History of How We Got Here and Why, which we’ve embedded below. We’re featuring it despite the lack of a transcript. Even though Blyth presents a fair bit of detail that is familiar to readers, he manages the difficult task of synthesizing it in a way that generates novel observations. It doesn’t hurt that Blyth is also colorful and a high bit rate transmitter. This video is a fantastic way to get people you know who’ve started to develop doubts about orthodox stories about how the economy works to see thing in a different light.

Blyth argues that the world has been through three policy regimes, using computers as an analogy and arguing that like computers, capitalist systems all have the same major components and economic ideology is the “software”. 

The regime first was the gold standard, which allowed for international capital mobility without inflation, favoring capital over workers. That regime worked from roughly 1870 to World War I. As academics like Peter Temin described in detail, after the Great War, European economies tried to restore the gold standard, and Temin argues that those efforts produced the Depression.  
The Depression ushered in policy changes which eventually produced the next era, which started after World War II. The policy objective of this era was full employment. Cross-border capital flows were restricted, countries were more autarky-like than now, and governments were economic activists. Blyth quips that no one knew who central bankers were back then.

This era broke down with the 1970s inflation. But Blyth argues that the trigger was that the share of GDP going to labor had become intolerably high to businesses and investors. Inflation also favors labor over capital by eroding the real value of debt. The answer to that was the capital-favoring, globalist, inflation-hostile neoliberal era.

Blyth stresses that what happened after the 2008 financial crisis, which resulted from the failings of the neoliberal regime, the effort to restore the old system, is an unnatural response which will only lead to intensification of the underlying stressors, like rising levels of private debt, greater income inequality, and even more financialization.

Only an economist could see climate change as hopeful. Blyth sees climate change as discrediting the populist right, which has no answers for this problem, and libertarians, who are allergic to state action, when that will not only become necessary but desperately sought after.

"I don’t want to diminish your appetite for watching this video-talk by saying more, particularly since a lot of the fun of a Blyth talk is in his asides where he present things as obvious, and even if you kinda-sorta knew that particular factoid, you probably didn’t have as pithy a formulation as he does."

The video!

Principal K Kristian Siva's of FPM addendum chart:

 

Is Farage The New Soros For The Euro?

George Soros famed from a multi-billion dollar hedge fund as "the man who broke the Bank of England" is a popular narrative of the mainstream financial media.

Frage: the Face of Brexit - An Anti-Hero or Man of The People? (Source: Twitter)

Yet I have not heard the context of the man who broke the British Parliament! Witness the political impasse over Brexit to Easter 2019 and one can deduce that Nigel Farage, the figurehead of the "Leave European Union" movement, did indeed break the House of Commons. He did not make money to the tune of a billion dollars, but gained an ardent reputation against status quo (of which he is admittedly low on the scale).

The Betrayal Of Britain By Incumbent Politicians June 2016-19 (Source: Twitter)

Fund Portfolio Management's principals feel they do not need to deliberate further about the above statement. As an open-minded read of mainstream media - msm - background to "Brexit" clearly indicates. Mr Farage like Mr Soros, believed in fundamental macro tenets, and stuck to his guns when others were merely interested in the ideas that prevailed. What was this fundamental belief? As most financial pundits will know, Mr Soros believed that the exchange rate of the Pound Sterling versus the benchmark German DeutscheMark was fundamentally too high in the Exchange Rate Mechanism. ERM was the fore-runner mechanism which decided the exchange-rates between member states; before the fully-fledged Euro currency that we know today. Equally, whether by design or accident, the EU is an assembly expanding from six equal-wealth member states to what is now a twenty-seven member states (excluding Britain pending Brexit), is and was fundamentally a flawed crrangement.

The flaws of the EU are VISIBLE in its current dysfunction, as well as the benefits accrued to the newer member states in "sweetners. The single pointed flaw is conceptual. Without having a tiered system, how can one-rulebook be applied to 27 disparate countries? Then if there is discretion, like France and most members exceeding the national debt to GDP limit of 60%, then what's the raison d'etre of EU bureaucracy. The much called for reforms of the EU have not happened, which was a reason for UK calling for an EU referendum on leaving or staying. And consequent Brexit, which is still pending at time of writing, voted by the British people.

[Article originally started on 2-May-2019 NOW continued 14-June-2019]

The culmination of Brexit issue is the single most important policy decision of western globalisation of the past 40-50 years and the next 30 years. This is especially important when considered in connection with climate-change. In order to reduce environment damage and the climate damage it seems obvious that we have to put the brakes on economic activity. Implicit or explicity stated. Or what we at FPM suspect, the global economy has to or is shifting or transitioning towards a "green economy". Some are vanguard pioneers in this. Others are in slow realisation while fronting a total denial of the potentially devastating problem: FPM cite the current POTUS and leader of the Western world Donald Trump and his administration. However, politics being by nature a two-faced profession, maybe Mr Trump is slowing the two giant global growth engines via his trade-wars and sanctions spat with China. As much as Brexit-deliverance will disrupt free movement and of goods and people, and thereby reduce carbon-footprint and CO2 emissions.

Another important but seemingly overlooked concern about Brexit deliverance, or mired by propagandists narratives, is "democracy". Defined as the organisation of society decided by the people. Whereas "aristocracy" meant society organised by the elite or best people. Or as FPM believes, we live in an actual society organised for "wealth", known as "plutocracy" but parading as deluded-democracy. FPM know we are right: just look at the scale of the wealth inequality in societies globally. As vividly described in book by Thomas Piketty in "Capital in The Twenty-First Century", or simply searched on internet; example from 2018 passive-article in Guardian newspaper.

The Book Describing Wealth Inequality

The Book Describing Big Government and Big Business Collusion

But democracy or people need to be heard and will indeed be heard on matters of personal and wider passions of mind. That was description of a typical Brexit mentality. Don't interpret FPM's assertion as an opinion, just look at the voting statement of the people of Britain and the EU in the European elections results of May 2019 (more in next paragreph). Again, don't forget that, and start to view or read the shameless manipulation of the voting-results by "propagandist pratts". Who interpret the facts as "win for Green parties" or "win Liberal Democratic". No, no and no! Anyone can interpret facts, for instance, one can justifiably postulate whether we really need another tier of trans-national government for Europe, or elsewhere. While most people do not want more Government, and fed up with existing structures of managing society in the interest of the rich and powerful, we are concerned about the rise of institutional fascism. Not to be confused with populism and acts of democracy like the Brexit or Arab Spring or Gilet Jaunes; but actual instituional people in governments and multi-national corporations, as well as global investors or financiers. Hence why FPM referenced the 1980s book "Friendly Fascism - The New Face of Power in America" by Bertram Gross above.

People voted clearly, at least in England, for the 3-weeks-in-existence, Brexit Party and its figurehead from former UKIP party Nigel Farage. And the dumb-founded establishment are still scratching their monkey-brains and fighting against this populist uprising and revolt by the "demos" vote. "Demos" is the Greek word for people in society. As if further evidence of voting motives, and how Tory MPs in House of Parliament view the issue of Brexit (leaving it or remaining), witness who won the first and subsequent round of voting for the new Conservative leader or would be Prime Minister. At time of writing, Conservative members vote for the final two of Boris Johnson and Jeremy "Msprint" Hunt!

The Outright Brexit Supporter Leads Tory Leadership Race (Source: Twitter)

Yes you got it, a Euro-sceptic and figurehead of the Leave EU campaign Boris Johnson is leading the race.FPM actually rated and follow the diary of a true Brit and Brexit-man John Redwood, Conservative MP for Wokingham since 1987.

While it is true Fund Portfolio Management is about financial perspectives, and less about politicial upheavals, we have been pushing the idea of the fundamental long-term value of the British Sterling Pound versus that of the start-up new-millenia currency the Euro. The procrastination and swaying about clean-cut breakaway from the EU via Brexit, after nearly 3-years to the month (remember 23rd of June 2016 EU Referendum day), has only made the resolve of that vote more impudent and ardent, rather than losing its distinct drive of anti-establishment anti-corporation populist ambition.

Of course the globalist capitalist cabal with the dollar-firepower have been driving down the value of the breakaway nation's currency. The Sterling has de-valued against the US Dollar from $1.50 plus to now being worth only $1.26 to the Pound. It is a similar story versus the Euro: at the Pound's peak-value against the Euro was £1.50 (in early 2004, and even a year before the "#EUref" the value was £1.40 plus), but now the Pound drifting at £1.12 to the Euro. It should be noted that the low for the Pound valuation versus the Euro was during the financial-crisis when on 1-Dec-08 the Pound reached near parity to the Euro, of £1.02 for GBP/EUR. This low for Sterling was way before Brexit was even a word in the lexicon! Therfore Mark Carney, Bank of England  governor and other so-called experts of "Project Fear", are only influencing democratic-concensus towards their global and capitalist agenda, as per their "useful idiot" office in the bigger picture. Mr Carney even apologised for stoking-up fears of Brexit  before the EU referendum in 2016. Having BOTH the leave and remain campaigns lying is material but not unheard of in political pledging.

The Convenient Lies of The So-called Experts About Brexit (Source: Twitter)

FPM's fundamental deep-insight is that the current devaluation of the Pound, in its natural up-down policy-paved-path, may have significant downside to UK tourists to America and Europe. Impact on business is mixed. UK imports become expensive, while exports from UK cheaper. The net effect is determined by whether UK has more exports than imports - our perpetual current-account deficit suggests we have more imports, in terms of goods and services. When most countries pursue the ambition of driving down their currencies to compete internationally on exports, the devaluation-rounds are partially neutralised. As coined in the phrase "the race to the bottom". Only the stand-alone countries with their own currencies, like Switzerland Sweden Norway Denmark and UK in Europe, can eventually buck that trend of raising interest rates and allow their currencies to rise. Hence FPM's medium-term curency-play thesis, which is now a long-term play due to delays in Brexit deliverance. WARNING is that anyone following this forex trade should have long-term warehousing costs for maintaing or rolloing-over position with views about being long Sterling GBP and short Euro EUR. 

In concluding FPM recommendations and remarks, we re-affirm our strong belief that Britain's manner of exit from the European Union is more relevant for the federal European project than domestic impact. FPM feel this is especially true in a world of de-weaponising economic growth objectives in light of climate change emergency. Dont's take our world for it! Read excerpt from story by Politico.EU which cites Mr Carney's apology:


"Leading Euroskeptic backbencher John Redwood, a close ally of Brexit Secretary David Davis, said Carney was right to warn European leaders that Brexit posed a greater threat to their financial stability than to the U.K.’s. Reflecting the increasingly bullish mood among Tory MPs, Redwood said: 'I’m very glad he’s come round to the logic of it. The difficult hand in these negotiations is the EU’s, not ours. We meet all of our objectives simply by leaving.'" [By Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli and Tom McTague via Politico.EU on 1-Nov-2017]

Post Brexit Britain - All Change

New models of capitalism or just simply the reversing of corrupt crony capitalism is the prospect from the British people voting to leave the European Union, known as "Brexit".



In Europe there will be a major national bankruptcy. Fund Portfolio Management principal Kristian Siva is joining #IMF and #BIS (Bank of International Settlements) in predicting a crash this year, perhaps October (Italian geopolitics catalyst via elections). The magnitude or severity of downward asset plunge is dependent on the geopolitics step-changes that occurs this year. To be sure #Brexit artifice or consent-manufacturing democratics was a significant sea-change; reverberations of which are taking place in the geopolitical spheres (election of Trump; proxy alliances in the war in Syria etc) , and mutedly so in Pavalovian-dogs' (psychology of classical conditioning) operated capital markets.

Financial market chiefs dislike financial history, but as a reminder: not unlike "PIIGs"-insolvency consequences of the 2007-08 financial crisis, which morphed into Greece and #Grexit demands in 2011, Brexit has ACTUALLY come about on June 23rd, 2016. Ultimately we believe this augurs the demise of the Euro currency via the European Union existentialism question, which has been enduring in economic consciousness pervasively. Yet other geopolitical machinations exist to disrupt and reprice capital assets; assets which are relevantly NOT owned by the 99%. Though in an indirect way long-term savers e.g. pension-savers, and capital investors in stocks and bonds, will see some modest loss of wealth. We believe stock or equity market assets to be impacted by multitudinous debt writedown... 

To Be Continued.

Reading List:

A third of global government debt now has negative interest rates

Globalists Are Now Openly New World Order Centralization

Are Investors Really Out There: #Brexit & Siva

The title of this post is a reference to our exposition “The Search forAlpha: Soros of the Euro?”, way back in October 2011. Below is the extract from the opening paragraph:

“We know hedge fund managers are out there but are they "really out there", say with a macro play to break-up the Eurozone's common currency the Euro? Like the one George Soros spearheaded causing the exit of the British Sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992?”

The title of this post is also a play on the theme with “Siva” being the “Soros” of Euro breakup vanguard. FPM bases it fundamental view, held since the EU inception, on the fact that the capital markets, particularly “forex trading” lost a swathe of business from foreign-exchange trading. This happened with the elimination of Francs, Deutschmarks, Lira, Pesetas, Guilder etc when a new Union currency was hypothesised and eventually introduced in 1999. This represented a radical shift in the geopolitics tectonic-plates of European national sovereignty; an identity which has been at the heart of an  advanced economic society of the last 200 years, since and before the industrial revolution. 

To put the European Union project in a relative context for comparison, the tectonic-plate shift would be akin to, for example, the South East Asian region being regulated towards consolidation  or unification of their numerous car manufacturers. Loss of car firms instead of  the EU currencies is the comparative. The disappearance of car manufacturers in just two of the major economies of the region would represent a seismic  loss of business. Considering just Japan and South Korea,  the following list is  only some of the car companies, that would disappear: Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Daewoo, Daihatsu, Nissan, Mazda etc. Perhaps these companies are replaced by one or two regional mega car manufacturers. 

That comparative example would see national car companies  disappear to leave one large regional conglomerate and loss of car manufacturing business in some countries. While those countries retaining the less-is-more car-production facilities in the region may benefit from the mergers and acquisition in the automotive sector.  Arguably, whether theories of monopoly businesses eliminating wasteful competition, or a degree of  competing oligopoly business model etc, prevails is left to impotent academic economists. FPM principals in their practical and studied considerations suggest these corporate M+A, and similar social unification have its profound rationale in geopolitic and realpolitik - not mere commercial sense. This is really the issue for in this changing  mileu, which FPM is developing to a crest through its triumvirate enterprises (convergence, no smoke without fire: of reputation and M+A in alternatives).

Back to the case in point: winding-time forward from inception of the Eurozone of countries adopting the common currency, and we have K Kristian Siva, principal of FPM, uncompromisingly and absolutely speculatively promoting  the raison d'etre of the thin-end-of-wedge European Union project, as it is now and what it implies. This one-size-fits-all regional entity therefore occasionally casts doubts about the existentialism of the representative Euro currency. FPM  does not believe it is wholly an existentialism crisis for the Union project at this stage; more that the mainstream media narrative is used as rhetorical tool to instigate capital market devaluation of the Euro currency. This is indeed in keeping with global sovereign currency devaluations taking place. Devaluation maintains national competitiveness in global trade i.e. imports become expensive and exports cheap, and viceaversa . The exchange rate of a national currency determines health of an economy relative to others. Depreciation of national exchange rate have been   taken in turns by China, Switzerland, EU and Japan over recent years. Among these sovereign currency super-powers, there is indeed “Currency Wars” which are preceded by the “Trade Wars”. STOP THE PRESS!

US slaps China steel imports with fivefold tax increase - BBC.CO.UK 18 May 2016

Whatever scenario unfolds, just as in 1992 when the British pound exited the Exchange Rate Mechanism - ERM, a forerunner to the Euro currency (and hence why FPM and other foresighted experts describe the EU project as being implemented through  thin-end-of-wedge policies towards ultimate Federalism of Europe), the British are again central to the plans for homogenization of distinct European countries. The EU project has been in the making since 1953 when 6  European countries were inaugral members, through the Treaty of Rome, or some other grandiose "conflab" event. This time round the British citizenry are not represented by the Government making decisions about being part of the EU block, but relevantly by a democratic voting referendum of the people. It was then the Conservative alias Tory government under the lead of UK Prime Minister John Major after Margaret Thatcher's epochal innovations that forced exit from Euro project.

This time round it is the British people who decide whether it has been good FOR THEM over the last nearly-40 years since 1977, when EU and Milton Friedman school of capitalism / economics came to the fore. also to the fore came  “realpolitic” by Morgenthau, espoused by uber internationalist Henry Kissinger.

"Some good, some bad!” is what most people will say with personal relevance about the EU. But economically and in investment terms that era has left exponentially big national sovereign debts. A debt which the citizenry ultimately pays for through loss of municipal amenities and through greater taxation. To a point of catastrophic credit crisis, viz Greece played out as a microcosm of many many other countries' impending crisis. Some perspicaciously blame a model of the world, which is based on debt servitude and lacking idealism, on the moneylenders' creed. 

Robert Schuman (one of the founders of the EU) warned in 1963 that political counterfeiters were already undermining European democracy.

   
A people vote for Britain to exit (#Brexit) the European Union in the EU referendum (#EUref) on June 23^rd, 2016 by indigenous Britons, as opposed to unnaturalised UK citizens from Europe and other places over the decades, begins to unwind the first pillar of globalisation, which is rapidly heading  towards an "Orwellian 1984" New World Order. A one world government  ambition  which we as a global citizenry are most definitely currently  disastrously heading towards. The unwinding of the EU project, first and foremost, would damage the international capitalists from their hegemonic megalomaniac machination for the global population. An elitist ambition which has produced decade-long future austerity, sell-off of national assets and global wars, as well as greatest wealth inequality in populations. And Climate Change!

FPM's recommended  short play on the Euro versus the Dollar via an Exchange Traded Fund - ETF is ETFS 3x Short EUR Long USD (SEU3).

And as pictures speak a thousand words, below the ETF's is the performance over 5-years  and the past 1-Year is juxtaposed:

To Be Continued (only if you don't geddit yet idiot Brit!)

Scandals Have Been Boring For Too Long!

Scandals Have Been Boring For Too Long!

(The #PanamaPapers: Of Tax Evasion / Avoidance)

Inspiration for the title of this post is from an ad-slogan "Ships have been boring for too long" - How the great Cunard's QEII ocean liner was promoted at its launch in 1967.

Fund Portfolio Management - FPM looked at the latest whistle-blowing leaks of confidential / secret / private etc information. Particularly the significance of the #PanamaPapers dissemination. The revelations of the expose have similitude and character to a duplicitous grand theft from public-purse spanning over 40 years. Mere media cantation of whistle-blowing, leaks and scandal is wastefully "jobsworth" paper-selling newscycle. The seriousness of high profile Snowden, Assange, Clinton, Libor-fixing etc etc have sadly not been addressed and followed up to serve as tier of public-interest protection. Agencies do exist, but they are often Government-funded and therefore stymied by their regulatory enforcement efforts by unincentivised and overworked civil servants: for case in point, at least in the U.K., Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs - HMRC, the tax collecting authourity. Hence why scandals have created ennui and apathy in the accustomed-to-corruption public. FPM believe this "scandals" should be scintillating for the agencies concerned for years to come - not at all boring!

 

What is critically important TODAY is that we live in epoch-changing times with confluence of technological and geopolitical factors affecting the whole world – from globalisation. The joined-up thinking indicates that the #PanmaPapers serve to remind and ultimately remedy the biggest social problems of the past and TODAY, wealth-inequality - seriously. Climate change is indeed another one that threatens mankind, but while we exist the quality of existence is indeed measured by wealth. Especially so in a world imposed by money-lenders and money-changers in the "money game". People! we live in a plutocracy not a democracy - tax havens are an inevitable symptom of former type of organisation of society. Just as once Christianity was imposed on so-called pagan worlds, and theology used to exercise control power and influence (also sex!) over the subjects of religion.  The global oligarchy of wealthy establisment people and organisations in various countries have been exposed on global mass, for their shady practices equal to theft in complicity with law-makers and politicians. A grand theft from the majority of the public who have in essense been distracted and defrauded of tax revenues. Robbed blind! As the saying goes. And as further insult from these ruthless thieving classes of establishmentarians - upper-class elites devoid of human empathy that have always existed - the 99% of population now faces public spending austerity and public-assets privatised via corrupt crony capitalism. And isn't that indicative or cause of the biggest problem of global societies TODAY, great wealth inequality?

Mushrooming billionaires and millionaires inevitability means greater amount of common people poorer in debt servitude – zero-sum “game of money” (one wins another loses; then print and/or create more money via cycle of  asset-bubbles and lending).

So what makes the #PanamaPaper a catalyst for revolution by the proletariat and the middle classes? And who are these money-lenders and money-changers and accomplices  who make vast fortunes, exploiting the public? The various Biblical-proportions leaks revealing a shadow world of corporate and finacial malfeasance is treated by "Murdoch's MainStreamMedia Muppets" (a nickname from FPM's #NoSmokeWithoutFire: Of Reputation for bad journalists), as a "scandal". These sharing of secrets by whistle blowers in the interest of humanity could and should mean much more if big media were more responsible independent and didactic. Simply put, the public's induction and their deductions have been too long manipulated. FPM shed more joined-up-thinking perspectives on #PanamaPapers:

1) Examined in particular instances i.e. scrutiny of the deluge of data from JUST ONE organisation helping to avoid and or evade national taxes for the wealthy via offshore tax structures, we see the hypocrisy and blatant disregard for the public interest. Tax avoidance is meant to be illegal and evasion is permissable within rules. A public, who most of these wealthy classes,  entrepreneurs to politicians, claim to serve in their economic life and careers are arguably self-servingly exploiting and preying on the wider, majority and fellow humans. "Animals" is too insulting a word for wildlife, to describe this ruthless morality and behaviour: "beasts" seem apt! Not only of public figures like David Cameron, Prime Minister in the U.K. accumalating wealth from trusted public positions, but also of his ancestors and descendents indirectly; as the British PM shamelessly distance himself from his own deceased father through embroilment over Blaimore Holdings Inc.. This is exactly the case in point why FPM use the term "CORRUPT CRONY CAPITALISM". Most of these wealthy people rely on  their PUBLIC REPUTATION for their livelihood. Therefore it is not a stretch of the imagination to believe, for example, that David Cameron's has guilt by association, even though his father used tax shelter schemes. A case in point is the resignation of Iceland Prime Minister after the #PanamaPapers leaks – more later. So the high-impact value of these Mossack Fonseca company's operational files is not just about money laundering and discrete transactions in asset management – which to the many unsuspecting public would seem unusually like business as normal!

Instead the greater mass of the public, as in any peoples' revolutions of the past, have and have had an opportunity to hold accountable these wealthy individuals. Specifically to interrogate the difference in the public communication policy and their deeds towards accumulating wealth. David  This investigation of individual and corporate entities is KEY and CRITICAL as a catalyst for people's revolution to create or simply expect a fairer society, or at least re-dress the balance (until another and next era produces inequality!)

Q. Why is FPM certain that a comprehensive investigation of these #PanamaPapers and their information is key to opening Pandora box of the deceitful backward two-faced individuals and corporations? A. As proof, World governments have come out one-by-one to publically announce that they are starting investigations into these files and the tax affairs of en-masse wealthy (not just isolated ephemeral cases like Bernie Eccleston or Lionel Messi!). Tackling tax-avoidance is an appeasement rhetoric or platitudes often expected from lip-service sound-bite politicians. Keep these politicians and governments to account for their pledge in the afternmath of the terroist bomb of secret information.

2) These confidential information leaks and those to follow, as whistle-blowers get legal status and protection, are NOT merely a part of the ever-changing "NEWS CYCLE"; perhaps leak is itself agenda-driven, this time to appease  the disgruntled left-wing public and activists, or anything of the sort. FPM suggests "The Force Awakens: In Investigative Journalism!" The nature of Panama Papers is probably designed to have revolutionary impact: ICIJ · The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists have been handed this confidential information about the shadowy world. And they seemingly are responsible as a worldwide journalist community of named individuals (Project Managers: Marina Walker Guevara and Gerard Ryle), to adduce and disseminate findings from the leaked confidential secrets into the mainstream consciousness. At least until tax laws are effectively changed by the #politicianRcriminal class towards wealth-equality (among the other more prominent rhetoric about "gender equality", "racial equality"etc). Treatment of this #PanamaPapers will be tracked by FPM to ensure the sorting of  "the wheat from the chaff"; between mainstream media and new technological advent of private independent blog media.

To repeat, the global game-changing factors are: 1) Technological, 2) Geopolitical and 3) Wealth Inequality. ("Climate Change" is also key factor and FPM classify it under technological - as man-made phenomenon)

 

3) FPM just mentioned a technological factor in the above point, and more to follow. Now we demonstrate a geopolitical factor such as events in Iceland. FPM concludes that the purest form of democracy has been demonstrated by the most isolated yet fiercely independent society in the modern era. Iceland's premier has been impeached after the leaked Panama files, following public protests. Now that's true democracy from a coherent   nation of people! Remember that Iceland, along with a few other countries took a different path to the financial crisis that caused the "Great Recession".  Instead of fearing a national banking crisis, the Government's policy was to let their insolvent banks fail, rather than use tax-payer funds to plug the black-hole (i.e. difference in the bottom-line balance sheet of the banks between their liabilities and assets). It seems the people could not forgive the perfidy of the Icelanic PrimeMinister: on the one hand seeming to be tough on banks, and on the other using offshore tax haven to hide away profits (of his wife).

4) The final equation of the game-changing epoch or revolution which FPM explore is the state of the people. Do the people have enough "bread and circus" to pre-occupy them while rulers freely rule? Or, as reformers of in 19th century England  used to discuss: "the condition of England question". How do we reconcile the two distinct groups of economic interests, the haves and and the have-nots (rich and poor, bosses and workers, etc), which now and then starkly arises, and with hostility to one another. This embryonic revolution  was witnessed in the Arab Spring protests in the Middle East recently. As monarchies once knew how to gauge the sentiment of its people before carrying out its sovereign will, so as to not foment uprising and revolution by the people; similarly governments also were meant to be in touch with popular sentiment before enacting and enforcing regulation. However, there is a mechanism of feathering-one's nest where politicians rule the people via corrupt crony capitalists motivations, instead of ruling for them, the people, as elected representatives. If politicians are indeed out of touch with the depravity and outrage of its citizens, an incendiary background or circumstances exist for igniting a peoples revolt against the order of society.

5) Collaborative investigative journalism versus mainstream propaganda media is viewed by FPM as technological innovation of news organisations. One or two investigative journalists on large press / TV networks with secret leaked information may be putting his/ her job or career at stake in exposing powerful wealthy persons and organisations. In extreme cases, the exposing journalist/s may have their life threatened, and mostly sidelined or excommunicated from the press fraternity. Wasn't Glen Greenwald denounced for publishing Snowden leaks? With the scale of the #PanamaPapers information (2.3 terrabytes of digitised data) and the manner of its scrutiny and publication is indicative of an highly organised platform of the ICIJ consortium (109 news organisations and 370 named 'journos' worldwide have shared the high-level mass data). This augurs an effective dissemination of potent information to have societal impact; as much impact as handful of oligarchy colluding editors and their press-baron billionnaires owners have had to now(in the U.K. currently Mr Murdoch, Lord Rothermere, Barclay brothers and Mr Lebedev). Hopefully, the Force Has Awoken indeed: FPM has consistently criticised #msm while espousing alternative independant media in its financial services analysis.

6) The greater impact of the #panamapapers is only beginning to unfold i.e. now only the proverbial tip of the iceberg. FPM have long been speculating that geopolitical risks WILL cause the next economic and capital markets crash. Our capital markets strategic research points to a tsunami in currency trading markets, related to the $Euro foreign exchange crashing or even its existential demise. The Eurpean Union - E.U. itself not long ago faced an existential crisis with national deficit problems in member "PIIGS" countries. FPM have from the beginning espoused the doomed project that is the Eurpean Union in its blogs and commissioned / subscription research. The ultimate events and the catalyst for E.U. breakup are on stage following #panamapapers leaks. (Citation is Stratforumn)... to see complete doomsday-mongering on coign moment for capitalism's disaster, including end of carried-interest tax treatment), please contact FPM.

7) FPM's indicated in point 2 above about #panamapapers, that "perhaps leak is itself agenda-driven". Our veracity or disbelief in the potential impact and deductions that society draws from the modus operandi of a secretive global financial system, of essentially preserving and compounding wealth, is the involvement of George Soros funded Open Society Foundation. They report themselves as  'general support funding' the consortium of independent journalists charged with using the leaked data - the ICIJ. George Soros's "NoSmokeWithoutFire" reputation is not necessarily the public perception of him, through propaganda pandering mainstream media. Equally therefore, FPM prinicipals are somewhat dubious about the aims and source of this Panama leak. For instance, the bias in data revelations seemingly does more damage to developing countries' public figures than ones in developed countries. And lesser historical and extended family seem targets than uber-wealthy powerful figures of the USA etc. Further, as George Soros is a billionnaire money-lender, and some suggest staunch supporter of Zionist aspirations and one-world-government, FPM suspects a furtive  stealth agenda to usefulness of leaked transparency. Notice that Mr Soros is from the opaque world of hedge-funds and private-equity financial investments; he famously bet against the British currency the sterling being pegged too high against the Deutschemark in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism - a forerunner currency union to the E.U. and the Euro itself. Then in September 16, 1992 pound exchange-rate crashed and was eventually withdrawn from the ERM; and unsurprisingly is STILL out of the Euro-Zone member countries. Mr Soros made a reported billion-dollar-region fortune with his clients' money, for them and no doubt, significant proportion for himself through management and carried-interest fees, when the pound crashed on what is dubbed "Black Wednesday". The British taxpayers' public-purse lost that much money to Mr Soros and other cabal hedge funds in foreign exchange financial trading.

8) Threading points 6 and 7, it is remarkable that Mossack Fonsec, the Panama-based law firm, as the source of the leaks covering 21 tax-shelter jurisdictions around the world does not include Cayman Island.... To Be Continued.

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Sexy and saucy embodiment to a scandal is the reputation of the entity (corporate and corporeal perhaps) attributed as adduced from "No Smoke Without Fire" research!... Samples from FPM enterprise:

Www.FundPortfolioManagement.com
FPM's #NoSmokeWithoutFire: Of Reputation
© NSWF:Reputation
Did Blackstone Group Sponsor Insider Trading?

Did Blackstone Sponsor Insider Trading?

The past is often an indicator of the present and even of the future! 

Or simply the reverse and, may not be at all indicative of anything - à double entente! The point being: the title of this Loud Calumny post could equally have been “Does Blackstone Sponsor Insider Trading?”

Fund Portfolio Management - FPM, examines the increasingly accepted normality of "systemic corruption in corporate and political activities", and which the mainstream media  labels as “crony capitalism”.  A public induction information or label which grossly understates the scale of fraud, theft and malfeasance in the name of economics, by a cabal of business leaders. The deduction from such misrepresentation in the media is  that the beguiled public believes that this is the natural corrupt state of ethics in business. FPM prefers the nomenclature "Sickly Paradise", for the current mode of collusive capitalism referred to as technically as "oligarchies".

The damning evidence for this systemically rigged aspect of international economic life is through understanding the latent double-meanings in financial services, particularly nowadays.  Looking at a period of the last 30 years and inspecting the advent of financier billionaires, FPM have tracked and listed many purely self-serving professionals (and implicitly professions too), that are organised in society as worthwhile liquidity financiers for the public good (see relevant list below of the 5 billionaires at just Blackstone Group, which was founded in 1985 - 30 years ago!).

Public Reputation is a media-hyped generalisation to respect that these listed and other billionaires made money legitimately through industry skill luck and whatever else to succeed. The misused corporate intelligence by mainstream media is simply the requisite "organised lying" by various classes of mercantilism. This organised lying extends to the profession of government and politicians, who by their complicity as legislators condone and even perpetuate duplicitous activities. The stark “wealth inequality” in society in the new millennium is concomitant of this sickly paradise of billionaires.  FPM revealed the embodiment of this “sickly paradise” in its enterprising examination of Blackstone Group (BX) and S.A.C. Capital; the latter hedge-fund-sytematic cheat is abbreviated to "S.A.C." henceforth.

Even after the multi-billion dollar legal settlement with the government authorities in winter 2013 for a guilty corporate criminal conviction, Steven A. Cohen still has not, and probably cannot, be indicted on criminal charges. His management of an organisation culture manifest with insider trading suspicions since at least 1992, formerly bearing the initials of his full name, S.A.C. Capital, is much benignly reported in the sycophantic journalism of mainstream media. Mr Cohen's embroilment  in insider-trading allegations stem from as far back 1985, as alleged by Patricia Cohen, his former wife - she effing should know! S.A.C. changed its name to Point72 Asset Management after its guilty-plea and record penalty-fine conviction; a superficial makeover representing a shallow marketing and re-branding exercise. Done in complicity with #msm and #PublicRelations duplicity. Part of the main-name re-branding is "Point72", which is actually based on its current address! And would you believe it, S.A.C's address is and was, 72 Cummings Point Road, Stamford, Connecticut.

General Ethical Digression: This symptom of “too-big-to-jail” (as headlines satirically underplay), speaks hideous volumes of the protagonists’ natures and their ethical modus operandi in financial services, and extended organisations, if told in the context of reputation and calumny. Especially following that the decade long multi-agency investigation and legal prosecutions  turns out in the main to be a dumb-show of reprimanding white collar financial perpetrators for the cause and public-cost of “The Great Recession”. A public cost which imposed austerity instead of prosperity on the majority of the taxpaying population. The explanation of this dubious empty tactic is embedded in the political atmosphere of the day, where the tag “politicianRcriminals” seems highly appropriate. This latter aspect of crony capitalism is relevant, when considering that the President of The U.S. (#POTUS2016) elections is in November this year. American primaries or caucus for the nomination of the respective party leaders is currently underway.

In respect of serving the public interest - which is the genuine part of FPM’s mission and aim - the worst possible ending to a decade long investigations and prosecutions for insider-trading illegality / fraud and conspiracy has come about. This is the 30-years carry-on of excessive capitalism, mentioned as the sickly paradise, or corrupt crony capitalism, and elaborated with an inaugural case-in-point enterprise.

Back to our case-in-point protagonists: Not only that a civil liability proceedings was the only punitive action against the targetted kingpin of this era's insider-trading enforcement, Mr Cohen as a reputed "Artful Dodger", has been given a mere proverbial “slap on the wrist” by the regulator and U.S. Justice. Government funded regulator of the securities laws in America, the Securities and Exchange Commission - S.E.C, in conjunction with Department of Justice - D.O.J. and even the Federal Bureau of Investigations - F.B.I. have all been expediently outwitted by the "Disgracefully Dubious Coign". View below and disseminate electronically the FPM poster showing Mr Cohen's public reputation, awarded 20th Jan 2016:

Does the occasional multi-billion settlement compensate for the systematic fraud that creates 1% of billionnaires while 99% wallow in austerity and debt-servitude? There is name-and-shame reprisals if not the furore of the public revolution still to face. Watch this space. For financial operators playing within the written rules of the zero-sum investments game, this “slap” is hardly appropriate for the grand larceny in the conduct of investment management, that S.A.C Capital admittedly conducted. Some real-money equity traders know their positions were shafted by illegal confidential information - right?

To date, the greatest future detriment to the long-term-saving publics' portfolios (pensions, endowments, sovereign wealth funds etc), has been that in this era of insider-trading crackdown, the law has been made EASIER to commit IT, of course without being caught. S.A.C. has been caught and punished for some USD$ 2 bn, yet Mr Cohen its undoubtable orchestrator is scott free, and has reportedly net worth of approximately, USD$ 10 bn - astonishing!  Is that the cost of a firm willing to sell their employees' souls to the devil, and for potentially doing some jail-time?! (Ed note: I do mere over-time when working, that's all!)

Preet Bharara, representing U.S. justice and acting as district attorney for Manhattan in this era of enforcement, is the running parody that FPM dub “The Punch and Judy Show”. The Department of Justice – DoJ in the U.S., have now had their numerous convictions and jail sentences for insider trading being vacated / quashed. The exoneration of insider-trading perpetrators,  yet earlier judged and convicted in U.S. Court proceedings, demonstrates disproportionate justice in financial services as at a historic low, not to say farcical shambles. Acquitted on a technicality of insider-trading laws, include S.A.C. heavyweight honcho Michael Steinberg. The other small fry at S.A.C. who is serving time for his crime is Mathew Martoma.

In the era of insider-trading investigations following the TMT-bubble crash at the turn of this century, Arthur J. Samberg, founder of Pequot Capital Management, and others were prosecuted largely on circumstantial evidence, given that insider trading by its ambiguous nature is difficult to prove. Read more of this historic account in New York Times from 2006: S.E.C. Is Reported to Be Examining a Big Hedge Fund. Again, remarkably some 30 or so years ago, these hard working Jewish coterie (See picture below, Dennis Levine later), actually served jail time as senior executive financiers in that era of insider-trading rackets. Lady Justice worked then, sadly she has nowadays been bought and paid-for!

Insider Traders Properly Punished in 1986 - left to right: Ivan Boesky, Michael Milken and Martin Siegel

No Smoke Without Fire: Of Repuatation
#NSWF:Reputation 

1) From the inaugural exhaustive study of insider trading, FPM grants the S.E.C. “Dog Without Teeth” Degree. FPM elaborating on this Federal regulator's stymied enforcement would not be as pertinent as a former trial attorney at the S.E.C. Jim Kidney's parting shot at his retirement. Read about it in extracted form here (The original full speech has been removed from public domain by S.E.C. workers union!)

2) One of S.A.C. Capital’s earliest and biggest backers was Blackstone Group’s division, Blackstone Alternative Asset Management - BAAM. A NSWF:Reputation Degree awarded to BAAM: “Sham Sponsoring Schwarz”[1] 

BAAM bragg on their corporate website:
“Blackstone Alternative Asset Management (BAAM®) is the world’s largest discretionary allocator to hedge funds, with $69 billion in assets under management as of December 31, 2015". 

Blackstone Group, as a prominent sponsor and investor in the discredited, disreputable and now defunct in name S.A.C. Capital, is attributed a degree of guilt by association, as well as others (on the “FPM Reputation Blacklist”). Our induction and deduction suggests that certain executives, especially its chief executive officer J. Tomlinson Hill, also known as Tom Hill, probably did know about illegal activities at Mr Cohen's firm, and perhaps actively encouraged it for the spectacular returns; and that Blackstone even chose to turn a blind eye about early suspicions and reputation for insider trading by S.A.C. Capital’s owner manager. FPM adduces this thick-as-thieves conclusion from its template analysis, and is not intended as any slighting slander, and indeed to speculate on reputation:

“Mr Hill, did you know about Steven A. Cohen’s insider trading reputation, and what was your basis for investing with a reputed cheat; was his evasion of legal indictment a reputable kudos as source of exceptional trading returns?” FPM Princpal

FPM cite below a summary of "Circumstantial Evidence", once used in law to convict illicit traders. From these, FPM adduces between the hidden motivations with the public pretext:

1) Blackstone Pulled-Out Its Investment With S.A.C. At The Last Hour -
By fleeing a sinking ship at the last moment demonstrates conviction and faith in S.A.C. being able to survive the regulatory and legal enforcement onslaught. FPM belives the last minute exit was less about courage and support that their man was innocent, and more about face-saving exercise done to avoid guilt by association, and to limit wild-fire damage to its reputation. Remember that hedge fund investing firms that had wittingly or otherwise invested in Bernard Madoff's fraud lost a lot of credibility for their due diligence e.g. Union Bancaire Privee - UBP

2) Blackstone Sponsored Convicted DiamondBack as Investors Too -
The S.A.C. related insider-trading investigations also included, now failed, Diamondback Capital. The fund manager there was Todd Newman. As a former S.A.C. Capital workers, along with another convicted manager and co-founder of Level Global Investors, Anthony Chiasson, they both were handed a landmark verdict in the appeals court. Their criminal inider-trading convictions verdict from December  2012 was overturned and reimbursement of fines to them is underway. Blackstone connections to those with an edge in hedge funds is well known in inner circles but discussing it publically is much a taboo as anti-semitic construed remarks. FPM has made lists of associates of Blackstone principals, potentially acting-up as rogue traders - talk about "laying off risk"!

3) Blackstone and S.A.C. Have Relationship of Decade or More -
Aside of the opportunity for complicity and duplicity in a long marriage, FPM is also concerned about the quality of relations between the principals of these billionaires. We have looked into their occasional functional "meetups" like Council For Foreign Relations - CFR:...  

4) Founders of Blackstone and SAC Both Share A Jewish Heritage - 
The social or racial grouping provide both exclusivity and mutuality for operating as a cabal (a word with Hebrew origins), helping traditionally to keep the wealth within a family. The darker behavioural aspects of such ethnocentric groups are numerous and many for the report, needless to say that secrets, especially confidential business information may be passed without expectation of betrayal. The term "thick as thieves" comes to mind for this context of insider-trading rings.

5) Blackstone's Stephen Schwarzman Worked with Dennis Levine - 
Mr Schwarzman, a co-founder of Blackstone and Mr Levine as convicted insider-trader in the mid-1980s worked together as Mergers and Acquisitions bankers at Great Recession blow-up bank Lehman Brothers.

Insider trader of mid-1980s Dennis Levine (Source: "Den of Thieves" / FPM)

"Dennis was stealing my deals... It’s the most traumatizing thing that’s happened in my business career, to know that the person…in the next office, is a thief... When we started Blackstone I vowed that would never happen, and it hasn’t...” Stephen Schwarzman

From the practical experience of Milken, Levine, Siegel and Boesky era of insider-trading enforcement cira 1986, Mr Schwarzman understood the mechanism of insider trading, as well as the super easy certain investment returns, from the special relationship between deal-makers and traders, who under Glass-Stegall were prohibited from co-operation by Chinese Walls.

6) J. Tomilson Hill (Tom Hill),  Managed Dennis Levine -
Mr Hill, now head of Blackstone Alternative Asset Management - BAAM, had as then head of "Mergers and Acquisitions at Smith Barney in New York 1979 recruited, or correctly, hand picked and groomed Dennis Levine (notice the old school slivked back similarity of the two men?)

7) Dennis Levine Alleged That Tom Hill Was Insider Trading -
Mr Levine claimed J, Tomilson Hill had a secret trading account and was swapping inside information with an investment banker at Dillion, Read and trading on deals leaked by others. Levine had remonstrated  that:

"I could bring Hill down with what I know!" 

(Source: James B. Stewart, "Den of Thieves", 1991)

etc etc!
(N.B. Mr Hill and Mr Schwarzman, as far as FPM principals know, have never been formally accused of any misuse of confidential information; Mr Levine has been convicted and is unashamedly whistle-blowing)/

Among other smoke signals, the smoke from the reputation wild-fire which FPM tracks, was that FPM's check of Form 4 and 13F filings for listed Blackstone suggests an opportunity to buy into the correction before the impending market crash. Aside of the geopolitical bomb, we believe a market-led crash catalyst to be high-yield debt bust in oil and other fossil fuels, or perhaps a hedge fund blow-up - ala Long Term Capital Management - LTCM.

 Blackstone redeemed its investment just before SAC Capital was expected to be found guilty of insider trading. Any respectable organisation connected with a firm spawning a litany of insider trading advocates (see FPM's "SAC Capital's Litany of Litigation and Proceedings" from an post from xxxx), could reasonably be expected to disassociate themselves for lasting reputation sake. Especially, as they seemingly promote such ethical corporate governance values (cough cough!) – see screen-dump below explaining Blackstone’s “Guiding Principles”:

Bullshit! No, indeed they can manage this corporate perfidy?!

For disregarding the Blackstone Group's Guiding Principles, and even betraying them, as the potential fall-guy. FPM's ©NSWF:Reputation, with considered and adduced opinion, award J Tomilson Hill a Degree of "Schwarz Bullshit Artist". Indeed, James B. Stewart's epochal coverage of the insider-trading era of mid-1980s with Milken and Boesky, in "Den of Thieves" suggests that, Mr Hill sensed that Dennis Levine was in his terms, a "bullshit artist". Hence FPM's NSWF:Reputation Degree.  What goes around comes around eh!

In summary, FPM's three posters advertising FPM's ®NSWF:Reputation: 

S.E.C: “Dog Without Teeth” Degree

B.A.A.M: "Sham Sponsoring Schwarz"

J Tomilson Hill "Schwarz Bullshit Artist"

Of the person's mentioned or the protagonists of this ©NSWF:Reputation post, whom FPM are careful not to falsely accuse and slander, or in high-English “calumniate”. Bearing in mind that a) it is not slander if it is the truth and b) a reputation verdict is merely that, and everyone and everything can or does have one, even under constitutional freedom of speech laws, and c) in a context of financial services research being especially speculative in their nature. FPM's reputation enterprise is based on ‘mosaic’ research is indeed a veritable due diligence.
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Advert for ©NSWF:Reputation:

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[1] This NSWF:Reputation Degree is no way implies that Stephan A. Schwarzman, co-founder of Blackstone, is guilty by association; simply that “Schwarz”  has German etymology, from schwarz, an adjective for black)