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Tuesday 19 January 2010

The Calm Before the Storm

Instead of re-cycling what is predominantly out there as views on macro and micro developments I aim to emphasise my bearish view towards March 2010.

These two website analyses are from somewhat knowledgeable bears (aside of Wall St Journal / Bloomberg headlines or mainstream hacks: 1) pragcap.com hears Felix Zulauf of Zulauf Asset Management 2) SeekingAlpha.com's Double-Dip Recession View.

The patched-up economy is just that: real unemployment is still at depression-level highs, the housing-bubble has not been allowed to burst properly, while corporations have been quick to recognise and act upon the 'recision-period', have not seen revenues increase. Corporate revenues cannot develop in a climate of consumer fear about jobs: finding one or losing one; and corporate fear about interest rates ultimately rising, but maybe sooner, and if not sooner why not?

Well, it may be that prolonged recession plays out in the real economy (skin to Japan's lost decade or similar to the Great Depression), while the Street will certainly soon expect to consolidate after state-aided momentum / herd-rally since March 2009 lows.

I felt apt at using the weather analogy: the calm in the eye-of-the-storm because of Climate Change devastations like Haiti and Japan’s fourth largest bankruptcy of flag-carrier JAL having less than a ripple in the markets. Investors are presumably de-sensitised in the World of Calamity as the Noughties ends and we enter a new decade.
Those who chose to exercise longer-term memories will realise this “patch-up” economy will only work for another 2-3 period before a Calamity is brought into focus and fear is rife – no not just new orthodoxy of shorter business-cycles; but an irreverent tinkering has been delivered to economic workings. Just like more extreme weather events (hurricanes, cyclones) and seasonal volatilities is new fact of life from the Climate Change. Again we turned a blind eye or at least we tryust the Government’s lip-service, but really no concerted effort to tackles the heart of the carbon reduction problem. Enjoy the Calm.