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Tuesday 6 October 2020

Airlines & Other International Passenger Carriers Should Be Left To Flounder Without Taxpayer Bailout In Covid19

(This "Airlines" commentary originally posted on Reddit under a sub-Reddit called "Political Discussions" with 987K members on 6th October 2020. But was rejected on the basis of "karma" points - see below! This is flagrant technocracy controlling freedom of expression.)

As manifold reasons suggest, airlines and such related industry as fright and cruise-line shipping have thrived and burgeoned since the advent of low-cost aircraft passengers flights and international trade in the 1970s.We vaguely remember Sir Freddy Laker and his attempt to break into the natural monopoly of national-airline carrier British Airways at the time in the UK.

Up to 2001, when so-called terrorist aeroplanes crashed into the twin Trade Towers in New York, America, the airline industry and by implication international passenger travel has grown at an alarming rate. Similar parallels can be drawn with related transport industry sub-sectors in developed countries.

"Alarm" due to known and intended consequences wreaked on climate and environment by the exponential use of fossil-fuels in transportation. These emergent "gypsy-like" traveller class of holiday-makers and subsequent mass migration. Former flargely transported from relatively rich countries and latter class from developing countries.

Sticking with the specific example, these largely monopoly national airline carriers allowed the world to get smalller. As did, around similar time, the growth of international shipping freight, in the name of business expansion and growth via international trade.

This "business-expansion" in the name of "economic growth" by initially American and European conglomerates led to "globalisation of everything". A growth sponsored and backed by their respective and successive governments as source of prosperity for the people since JFK in USA, and others elsewhere. From fast-food and novel drinks (McDonalds + Coca Cola) to widespread inter-racial marriages and homogenous culture-spread via Hollywood, and "Friends" tv-series televised globally through national television networks.

The complete globalisation of media has led to the international boon and bane of covid19; among other deliberate intention of coalescing media and corporate power around the "international capitalists"  were media barons. National sovereign socio-political and economic structures have also been grouped as innocuous sounding "multilateral agencies". The UN, Nato, World Bank, IMF, etc are the hijacked bodies of "globalisation of everything". Incidentally, W.H.O  in 2020 joined that illustrious list of multilateral agencies setup to promoting trade, financial-harmony, world-peace and now health? Pun intended!

These above rationales are not anecdotal observations but mere common-sense conclusions which can be backed-up by valid statistics (as opposed to manipulated statistics presented for cov-id19) . Such as the Baltic Freight Transport Index, as indicator of the growth in international trade, and other such benchmark measurement of passenger and product transportation growth between 1970 to 2001 and beyond.

Please do comment as appendage to the brief outlines of many relevantly co-joined ideas above - not necessarily as criticism or plauditary but as debate commentary.

(This is an excerpt of themes developed by author Krishna Siva on his enterprise's little-trodden website: www.fundportfoliomanagement.com & their #NoSmokeWithoutFire:OfReputation aka #NSWF:Reputation)

Thursday 27 February 2020

Stealth Super Slowdown of Fossil-Fuelled Economy

Coronovirus has implications as a control of the economic ebb and flow we can expect from 2020 onwards. From global government efforts to mitigate climate change. A "Super Slowdown" of the "Fossil-Fuelled Economy" is the necessity.

Coronavirus started in December 2019 is now reportedly expected to become a pandemic virus, at least according to some "cheap" expert (as in paid-for) who was rolled-out by BBC News. The globalisation of the virus was the headline-news story of the day. As we will observe, the re-named virus, officially "covid-19" is causing business and economic disruptions.

Coronavirus Distraction More Than "Disruption"

Never mind that being the headline news, but on the same day of 24th February 2020, on which journalist Julian Assange is facing a sham hearing on whether he should be extradited to America. His alleged crime is exposing war-crimes of America via WikiLeaks. Journalistic press-freedom should be paramount concern for the world. This hearing in Woolwich Crown Courts (see below about this Court) is in remote South East London, where he is being held in H.M.P Belmarsh Prison.  (Update here: "Your Man in the Public Gallery – Assange Hearing Day 1" and another from Consortium News with Live Updates From The Hearing Here.)

"Woolwich Crown Court is nothing but the physical negation of the presumption of innocence, the very incarnation of injustice in unyielding steel, concrete and armoured glass. It has precisely the same relationship to the administration of justice as Guantanamo Bay or the Lubyanka. It is in truth just the sentencing wing of Belmarsh prison." Craig Murray 25/02//2020

Yet "Disruption" Evidenced By Stock Markets Tumble

 Also that same day saw US$ 1.7 trillion wiped-off global stock markets due to participants seemingly pricing-in coronavirus becoming "pandemic" category. Allegedly from shareholders selling stocks affected by coronavirus global disruptions. FPM's sister enterprise LineBall Tennis who agitated on Twitter, shown below; had an understanding of what has greater impact on wider population - loss of freedom of press or variant of common flu:

Fake Tweet! Source:Twitter @LineBallTennis, CNN
The crux of the matter as a coronavirus distraction. Our understanding is that Covid-19 is virulent variant of influenza also known as "flu". They both have similarities that both are deadly especially to vulnerable categories, as it is do do with breathing and respiratory systems of our body. Despite the media frenzy and hysteria (as they have to propagandise 24-hour news cycle), the less media-minded people understand that a much greater proportion of people die annually from the flu, than have globally died from Covid-19.

The Importance of Business-Cycles In Forecasting

We at Financial Portfolio Management understand business cycles since the fledgeling organisation's founder initiated a dissertation when at Middlesex Unversity in his youth about business-cycle boom-and-bust, specicially studying the "Kondratieff Cycle" economic cycle factors.

 Professional investor greed and fear means share price valuations are currently trending ever higher at near record levels (see proxy FTSE100 chart below). These dizzy heights justified or otherwise WILL cause speculator trader and real-money investors to expereince wild uncertainties / swings, especially before settling into a secular reversal or possible up-trend. This is a precept about technical chart analysis and mean reversion in market behavioural analysis. Which is more short-term orientated cycles of stocks and stock markets.

Proxy FTSE-100 Near Record Levels. Source: Yahoo, FPM

So what is the fundamental long-term catalyst for putting the brakes on global economic activity? Which is undoubtedly causing catastrophic human-added climate change. The evidence of climate-changing is before our eyes via high definition mainstream television news. We've seen flooding in wetter climates, droughts with forest fires and bush fires in drier climates, and so on. The evidence is numerous. Mainstream news source nowadays bang-on about it' but not as prominently featured 10-20 years back sadly; or even further back when the science and extrapolation of trends first suggested "global warming from anthropic activities".

Slowdown Or Disruption Of Economic Activity
Every NATO or UN country will manifest a particular "shock" catalyst which results in effective slowdown of the real and financial-market economies. 'Brexit' as global known enduring phenomenon in United Kingon, as a political movement is designed to curtail economic activities, especially through short-term disruption to free movement of people and goods. Since Brexit is 'not done' despite Tory rhetoric and shock democracy of 2016 referendum, reverberating as "Brexit In Name Only", it is business as usual. FPM as firm Brexit-supporters say sham European Union is continuance of neoliberalism (see FPM's meaning of 'neoliberalism'), but rolled out to the newcomers from former U.S.S.R eastern European countries. When eventually Brexit gets done intra-European Union short-haul flights will be controlled. As necessary to meet 2030-50 set emissions targets for countries. Also as a footnote, UN climate-change summit will hosted by Glasgow, Scotland UK dubbed "COP26".
FPM's Understanding of Neoliberalism in Manifestation - Source: Naomi Klein "The Shock Doctrine" 2007
FPM is expecting further geopolitical fall-out from de-globalisation of the socio-economic political process. As well as Brexit, "America First" and POTUS Trump's border-wall war-cries are all part of stealth-super-slowdown in neoliberal globalisation, but dressed-up as populist nationalism or quarantined cornoavirus. FPM further believe there is global backlash to the liberal democracies of the West, which has prosperously benefited the few at the cost of austerity for the many. Not a political slogan but a fact. Austerity or poverty also rationlise the wider population from affording holidays and travel. Therby reducing economic activity.

Of course referring to the wealth-inequality issue, and circumstances of 2007-09 global financial-crisis. Especially how the ridiculed taxpayer via its government saved banks and other financial institutions from insolvency. After banks' self-regulating profligacy of virtually gambling. And of course regime-change agenda followed by western democracies in the Middle East / Gulf region. To keep the war-machine in these old-power countries chugging along. Again, who is paying for waging wars in the Gulf? Yep, the #stupidelectorate taxpayer! (Stupid Electorate hashtag was coined for some of the UK voters after the December 2019 General Election defeat in UK of Jeremy Corbyn and Labour Party)

"Stealth Super Slowdown" has to happen in the name of saving the planet and environment as we know it. We all acknowledge China's emergence to eminent economic super-power is the future driving-engine of global economic growth in the 21st Century. So by China peddling its soft-power of business-wealth potential, it can perhaps direct a new sustainable way of achieving economic life other than from fossil-fuels based industries. But the shock-impetus towards stealth slowdown of China's powerhouse economy is underway, see below excerpt from Reuters. Reminder that generally China's economy has been growing at double-digit rate or averaging 7% economic growth.

Economic data for January had been fairly upbeat, but analysts have since sharply cut their forecasts for economic growth in China. J.P. Morgan now expects Chinese GDP to shrink 3.9% this quarter, while Capital Economics sees it outright contracting. Reuters 27-Feb-20