The
title of this post is a reference to our exposition “The Search forAlpha: Soros of the Euro?”, way back in October 2011. Below is the
extract from the opening paragraph:
“We know hedge fund managers are out there but
are they "really out there", say with a macro play to
break-up the Eurozone's common currency the Euro? Like the one
George Soros spearheaded causing the exit of the British Sterling
from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992?”
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The title of this post is
also a play on the theme with “Siva” being the “Soros” of
Euro breakup vanguard. FPM bases it fundamental view, held since the EU inception,
on the fact that the capital markets, particularly “forex trading”
lost a swathe of business from foreign-exchange trading. This
happened with the elimination of Francs, Deutschmarks, Lira, Pesetas,
Guilder etc when a new Union currency was hypothesised and eventually
introduced in 1999. This represented a radical shift in the
geopolitics tectonic-plates of European national sovereignty; an identity which
has been at the heart of an advanced economic society of the
last 200 years, since and before the industrial revolution.
To put the European Union project in a relative context for comparison, the tectonic-plate shift would be akin to, for example, the South East Asian region being regulated towards consolidation or unification of their numerous car manufacturers. Loss of car firms instead of the EU currencies is the comparative. The disappearance of car manufacturers in just two of the major economies of the region would represent a seismic loss of business. Considering just Japan and South Korea, the following list is only some of the car companies, that would disappear: Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Daewoo, Daihatsu, Nissan, Mazda etc. Perhaps these companies are replaced by one or two regional mega car manufacturers.
That comparative example would see national car companies disappear to leave one large regional conglomerate and loss of car manufacturing business in some countries. While those countries retaining the less-is-more car-production facilities in the region may benefit from the mergers and acquisition in the automotive sector. Arguably, whether theories of monopoly businesses eliminating wasteful competition, or a degree of competing oligopoly business model etc, prevails is left to impotent academic economists. FPM principals in their practical and studied considerations suggest these corporate M+A, and similar social unification have its profound rationale in geopolitic and realpolitik - not mere commercial sense. This is really the issue for in this changing mileu, which FPM is developing to a crest through its triumvirate enterprises (convergence, no smoke without fire: of reputation and M+A in alternatives).
To put the European Union project in a relative context for comparison, the tectonic-plate shift would be akin to, for example, the South East Asian region being regulated towards consolidation or unification of their numerous car manufacturers. Loss of car firms instead of the EU currencies is the comparative. The disappearance of car manufacturers in just two of the major economies of the region would represent a seismic loss of business. Considering just Japan and South Korea, the following list is only some of the car companies, that would disappear: Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Daewoo, Daihatsu, Nissan, Mazda etc. Perhaps these companies are replaced by one or two regional mega car manufacturers.
That comparative example would see national car companies disappear to leave one large regional conglomerate and loss of car manufacturing business in some countries. While those countries retaining the less-is-more car-production facilities in the region may benefit from the mergers and acquisition in the automotive sector. Arguably, whether theories of monopoly businesses eliminating wasteful competition, or a degree of competing oligopoly business model etc, prevails is left to impotent academic economists. FPM principals in their practical and studied considerations suggest these corporate M+A, and similar social unification have its profound rationale in geopolitic and realpolitik - not mere commercial sense. This is really the issue for in this changing mileu, which FPM is developing to a crest through its triumvirate enterprises (convergence, no smoke without fire: of reputation and M+A in alternatives).
Back to the case in point: winding-time
forward from inception of the Eurozone of countries adopting the common currency, and we have K Kristian Siva, principal of FPM, uncompromisingly and
absolutely speculatively promoting the raison d'etre of the
thin-end-of-wedge European Union project, as it is now and what it implies.
This one-size-fits-all regional entity therefore occasionally casts doubts about the existentialism of the representative Euro currency. FPM does not believe it is
wholly an existentialism crisis for the Union project at this stage; more that the
mainstream media narrative is used as rhetorical tool to instigate
capital market devaluation of the Euro currency. This is indeed in
keeping with global sovereign currency devaluations taking place. Devaluation maintains national competitiveness in global trade i.e. imports become expensive and exports cheap, and viceaversa . The exchange rate of a national currency determines health of an economy relative to others. Depreciation of national exchange rate have been taken in turns by
China, Switzerland, EU and Japan over recent years. Among these
sovereign currency super-powers, there is indeed “Currency
Wars” which are preceded by the “Trade Wars”. STOP THE PRESS!
US slaps China steel imports with fivefold tax increase - BBC.CO.UK 18 May 2016 |
Whatever
scenario unfolds, just as in 1992 when the British pound exited the
Exchange Rate Mechanism - ERM, a forerunner to the Euro currency (and hence why FPM and other foresighted experts describe the EU project as being implemented through thin-end-of-wedge policies towards ultimate Federalism of Europe), the British are again central
to the plans for homogenization of distinct European countries. The EU project has been in the making since 1953 when 6
European countries were inaugral members, through the Treaty of Rome,
or some other grandiose "conflab" event. This time round the British citizenry are not
represented by the Government making decisions about being part of the EU block, but relevantly by a democratic voting referendum of the people. It was then the Conservative alias Tory government
under the lead of UK Prime Minister John Major after Margaret
Thatcher's epochal innovations that forced exit from Euro project.
This
time round it is the British people who decide whether it has been
good FOR THEM over the last nearly-40 years since 1977, when EU and
Milton Friedman school of capitalism / economics came to the fore. also to the fore came “realpolitic” by Morgenthau, espoused by uber internationalist Henry Kissinger.
"Some good, some bad!” is what most people will say with personal relevance about the EU. But economically and in investment terms that era has left exponentially big national sovereign debts. A debt which the citizenry ultimately pays for through loss of municipal amenities and through greater taxation. To a point of catastrophic credit crisis, viz Greece played out as a microcosm of many many other countries' impending crisis. Some perspicaciously blame a model of the world, which is based on debt servitude and lacking idealism, on the moneylenders' creed.
A people vote for Britain to exit (#Brexit) the European Union in the EU referendum (#EUref) on June 23rd, 2016 by indigenous Britons, as opposed to unnaturalised UK citizens from Europe and other places over the decades, begins to unwind the first pillar of globalisation, which is rapidly heading towards an "Orwellian 1984" New World Order. A one world government ambition which we as a global citizenry are most definitely currently disastrously heading towards. The unwinding of the EU project, first and foremost, would damage the international capitalists from their hegemonic megalomaniac machination for the global population. An elitist ambition which has produced decade-long future austerity, sell-off of national assets and global wars, as well as greatest wealth inequality in populations. And Climate Change!
"Some good, some bad!” is what most people will say with personal relevance about the EU. But economically and in investment terms that era has left exponentially big national sovereign debts. A debt which the citizenry ultimately pays for through loss of municipal amenities and through greater taxation. To a point of catastrophic credit crisis, viz Greece played out as a microcosm of many many other countries' impending crisis. Some perspicaciously blame a model of the world, which is based on debt servitude and lacking idealism, on the moneylenders' creed.
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Robert Schuman (one of the founders of the EU) warned in 1963 that political
counterfeiters were already undermining European democracy.
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A people vote for Britain to exit (#Brexit) the European Union in the EU referendum (#EUref) on June 23rd, 2016 by indigenous Britons, as opposed to unnaturalised UK citizens from Europe and other places over the decades, begins to unwind the first pillar of globalisation, which is rapidly heading towards an "Orwellian 1984" New World Order. A one world government ambition which we as a global citizenry are most definitely currently disastrously heading towards. The unwinding of the EU project, first and foremost, would damage the international capitalists from their hegemonic megalomaniac machination for the global population. An elitist ambition which has produced decade-long future austerity, sell-off of national assets and global wars, as well as greatest wealth inequality in populations. And Climate Change!
FPM's recommended short play on the Euro versus the Dollar via an Exchange Traded Fund - ETF is ETFS 3x Short EUR Long USD (SEU3).
And as pictures speak a thousand words, below the ETF's is the performance over 5-years and the past 1-Year is juxtaposed:
And as pictures speak a thousand words, below the ETF's is the performance over 5-years and the past 1-Year is juxtaposed:
To Be
Continued (only if you don't geddit yet idiot Brit!)
