Stealth Super Slowdown of Fossil-Fuelled Economy

Coronovirus has implications as a control of the economic ebb and flow we can expect from 2020 onwards. From global government efforts to mitigate climate change. A "Super Slowdown" of the "Fossil-Fuelled Economy" is the necessity.

Coronavirus started in December 2019 is now reportedly expected to become a pandemic virus, at least according to some "cheap" expert (as in paid-for) who was rolled-out by BBC News. The globalisation of the virus was the headline-news story of the day. As we will observe, the re-named virus, officially "covid-19" is causing business and economic disruptions.

Coronavirus Distraction More Than "Disruption"

Never mind that being the headline news, but on the same day of 24th February 2020, on which journalist Julian Assange is facing a sham hearing on whether he should be extradited to America. His alleged crime is exposing war-crimes of America via WikiLeaks. Journalistic press-freedom should be paramount concern for the world. This hearing in Woolwich Crown Courts (see below about this Court) is in remote South East London, where he is being held in H.M.P Belmarsh Prison.  (Update here: "Your Man in the Public Gallery – Assange Hearing Day 1" and another from Consortium News with Live Updates From The Hearing Here.)

"Woolwich Crown Court is nothing but the physical negation of the presumption of innocence, the very incarnation of injustice in unyielding steel, concrete and armoured glass. It has precisely the same relationship to the administration of justice as Guantanamo Bay or the Lubyanka. It is in truth just the sentencing wing of Belmarsh prison." Craig Murray 25/02//2020

Yet "Disruption" Evidenced By Stock Markets Tumble

 Also that same day saw US$ 1.7 trillion wiped-off global stock markets due to participants seemingly pricing-in coronavirus becoming "pandemic" category. Allegedly from shareholders selling stocks affected by coronavirus global disruptions. FPM's sister enterprise LineBall Tennis who agitated on Twitter, shown below; had an understanding of what has greater impact on wider population - loss of freedom of press or variant of common flu:

Fake Tweet! Source:Twitter @LineBallTennis, CNN

The crux of the matter as a coronavirus distraction. Our understanding is that Covid-19 is virulent variant of influenza also known as "flu". They both have similarities that both are deadly especially to vulnerable categories, as it is do do with breathing and respiratory systems of our body. Despite the media frenzy and hysteria (as they have to propagandise 24-hour news cycle), the less media-minded people understand that a much greater proportion of people die annually from the flu, than have globally died from Covid-19.

The Importance of Business-Cycles In Forecasting

We at Financial Portfolio Management understand business cycles since the fledgeling organisation's founder initiated a dissertation when at Middlesex Unversity in his youth about business-cycle boom-and-bust, specicially studying the "Kondratieff Cycle" economic cycle factors.

 Professional investor greed and fear means share price valuations are currently trending ever higher at near record levels (see proxy FTSE100 chart below). These dizzy heights justified or otherwise WILL cause speculator trader and real-money investors to expereince wild uncertainties / swings, especially before settling into a secular reversal or possible up-trend. This is a precept about technical chart analysis and mean reversion in market behavioural analysis. Which is more short-term orientated cycles of stocks and stock markets.

Proxy FTSE-100 Near Record Levels. Source: Yahoo, FPM

So what is the fundamental long-term catalyst for putting the brakes on global economic activity? Which is undoubtedly causing catastrophic human-added climate change. The evidence of climate-changing is before our eyes via high definition mainstream television news. We've seen flooding in wetter climates, droughts with forest fires and bush fires in drier climates, and so on. The evidence is numerous. Mainstream news source nowadays bang-on about it' but not as prominently featured 10-20 years back sadly; or even further back when the science and extrapolation of trends first suggested "global warming from anthropic activities".

Slowdown Or Disruption Of Economic Activity

 

Every NATO or UN country will manifest a particular "shock" catalyst which results in effective slowdown of the real and financial-market economies. 'Brexit' as global known enduring phenomenon in United Kingon, as a political movement is designed to curtail economic activities, especially through short-term disruption to free movement of people and goods. Since Brexit is 'not done' despite Tory rhetoric and shock democracy of 2016 referendum, reverberating as "Brexit In Name Only", it is business as usual. FPM as firm Brexit-supporters say sham European Union is continuance of neoliberalism (see FPM's meaning of 'neoliberalism'), but rolled out to the newcomers from former U.S.S.R eastern European countries. When eventually Brexit gets done intra-European Union short-haul flights will be controlled. As necessary to meet 2030-50 set emissions targets for countries. Also as a footnote, UN climate-change summit will hosted by Glasgow, Scotland UK dubbed "COP26".

FPM's Understanding of Neoliberalism in Manifestation - Source: Naomi Klein "The Shock Doctrine" 2007

FPM is expecting further geopolitical fall-out from de-globalisation of the socio-economic political process. As well as Brexit, "America First" and POTUS Trump's border-wall war-cries are all part of stealth-super-slowdown in neoliberal globalisation, but dressed-up as populist nationalism or quarantined cornoavirus. FPM further believe there is global backlash to the liberal democracies of the West, which has prosperously benefited the few at the cost of austerity for the many. Not a political slogan but a fact. Austerity or poverty also rationlise the wider population from affording holidays and travel. Therby reducing economic activity.

Of course referring to the wealth-inequality issue, and circumstances of 2007-09 global financial-crisis. Especially how the ridiculed taxpayer via its government saved banks and other financial institutions from insolvency. After banks' self-regulating profligacy of virtually gambling. And of course regime-change agenda followed by western democracies in the Middle East / Gulf region. To keep the war-machine in these old-power countries chugging along. Again, who is paying for waging wars in the Gulf? Yep, the #stupidelectorate taxpayer! (Stupid Electorate hashtag was coined for some of the UK voters after the December 2019 General Election defeat in UK of Jeremy Corbyn and Labour Party)

"Stealth Super Slowdown" has to happen in the name of saving the planet and environment as we know it. We all acknowledge China's emergence to eminent economic super-power is the future driving-engine of global economic growth in the 21st Century. So by China peddling its soft-power of business-wealth potential, it can perhaps direct a new sustainable way of achieving economic life other than from fossil-fuels based industries. But the shock-impetus towards stealth slowdown of China's powerhouse economy is underway, see below excerpt from Reuters. Reminder that generally China's economy has been growing at double-digit rate or averaging 7% economic growth.

Economic data for January had been fairly upbeat, but analysts have since sharply cut their forecasts for economic growth in China. J.P. Morgan now expects Chinese GDP to shrink 3.9% this quarter, while Capital Economics sees it outright contracting. Reuters 27-Feb-20

Is Farage The New Soros For The Euro?

George Soros famed from a multi-billion dollar hedge fund as "the man who broke the Bank of England" is a popular narrative of the mainstream financial media.

Frage: the Face of Brexit - An Anti-Hero or Man of The People? (Source: Twitter)

Yet I have not heard the context of the man who broke the British Parliament! Witness the political impasse over Brexit to Easter 2019 and one can deduce that Nigel Farage, the figurehead of the "Leave European Union" movement, did indeed break the House of Commons. He did not make money to the tune of a billion dollars, but gained an ardent reputation against status quo (of which he is admittedly low on the scale).

The Betrayal Of Britain By Incumbent Politicians June 2016-19 (Source: Twitter)

Fund Portfolio Management's principals feel they do not need to deliberate further about the above statement. As an open-minded read of mainstream media - msm - background to "Brexit" clearly indicates. Mr Farage like Mr Soros, believed in fundamental macro tenets, and stuck to his guns when others were merely interested in the ideas that prevailed. What was this fundamental belief? As most financial pundits will know, Mr Soros believed that the exchange rate of the Pound Sterling versus the benchmark German DeutscheMark was fundamentally too high in the Exchange Rate Mechanism. ERM was the fore-runner mechanism which decided the exchange-rates between member states; before the fully-fledged Euro currency that we know today. Equally, whether by design or accident, the EU is an assembly expanding from six equal-wealth member states to what is now a twenty-seven member states (excluding Britain pending Brexit), is and was fundamentally a flawed crrangement.

The flaws of the EU are VISIBLE in its current dysfunction, as well as the benefits accrued to the newer member states in "sweetners. The single pointed flaw is conceptual. Without having a tiered system, how can one-rulebook be applied to 27 disparate countries? Then if there is discretion, like France and most members exceeding the national debt to GDP limit of 60%, then what's the raison d'etre of EU bureaucracy. The much called for reforms of the EU have not happened, which was a reason for UK calling for an EU referendum on leaving or staying. And consequent Brexit, which is still pending at time of writing, voted by the British people.

[Article originally started on 2-May-2019 NOW continued 14-June-2019]

The culmination of Brexit issue is the single most important policy decision of western globalisation of the past 40-50 years and the next 30 years. This is especially important when considered in connection with climate-change. In order to reduce environment damage and the climate damage it seems obvious that we have to put the brakes on economic activity. Implicit or explicity stated. Or what we at FPM suspect, the global economy has to or is shifting or transitioning towards a "green economy". Some are vanguard pioneers in this. Others are in slow realisation while fronting a total denial of the potentially devastating problem: FPM cite the current POTUS and leader of the Western world Donald Trump and his administration. However, politics being by nature a two-faced profession, maybe Mr Trump is slowing the two giant global growth engines via his trade-wars and sanctions spat with China. As much as Brexit-deliverance will disrupt free movement and of goods and people, and thereby reduce carbon-footprint and CO2 emissions.

Another important but seemingly overlooked concern about Brexit deliverance, or mired by propagandists narratives, is "democracy". Defined as the organisation of society decided by the people. Whereas "aristocracy" meant society organised by the elite or best people. Or as FPM believes, we live in an actual society organised for "wealth", known as "plutocracy" but parading as deluded-democracy. FPM know we are right: just look at the scale of the wealth inequality in societies globally. As vividly described in book by Thomas Piketty in "Capital in The Twenty-First Century", or simply searched on internet; example from 2018 passive-article in Guardian newspaper.

The Book Describing Wealth Inequality

The Book Describing Big Government and Big Business Collusion

But democracy or people need to be heard and will indeed be heard on matters of personal and wider passions of mind. That was description of a typical Brexit mentality. Don't interpret FPM's assertion as an opinion, just look at the voting statement of the people of Britain and the EU in the European elections results of May 2019 (more in next paragreph). Again, don't forget that, and start to view or read the shameless manipulation of the voting-results by "propagandist pratts". Who interpret the facts as "win for Green parties" or "win Liberal Democratic". No, no and no! Anyone can interpret facts, for instance, one can justifiably postulate whether we really need another tier of trans-national government for Europe, or elsewhere. While most people do not want more Government, and fed up with existing structures of managing society in the interest of the rich and powerful, we are concerned about the rise of institutional fascism. Not to be confused with populism and acts of democracy like the Brexit or Arab Spring or Gilet Jaunes; but actual instituional people in governments and multi-national corporations, as well as global investors or financiers. Hence why FPM referenced the 1980s book "Friendly Fascism - The New Face of Power in America" by Bertram Gross above.

People voted clearly, at least in England, for the 3-weeks-in-existence, Brexit Party and its figurehead from former UKIP party Nigel Farage. And the dumb-founded establishment are still scratching their monkey-brains and fighting against this populist uprising and revolt by the "demos" vote. "Demos" is the Greek word for people in society. As if further evidence of voting motives, and how Tory MPs in House of Parliament view the issue of Brexit (leaving it or remaining), witness who won the first and subsequent round of voting for the new Conservative leader or would be Prime Minister. At time of writing, Conservative members vote for the final two of Boris Johnson and Jeremy "Msprint" Hunt!

The Outright Brexit Supporter Leads Tory Leadership Race (Source: Twitter)

Yes you got it, a Euro-sceptic and figurehead of the Leave EU campaign Boris Johnson is leading the race.FPM actually rated and follow the diary of a true Brit and Brexit-man John Redwood, Conservative MP for Wokingham since 1987.

While it is true Fund Portfolio Management is about financial perspectives, and less about politicial upheavals, we have been pushing the idea of the fundamental long-term value of the British Sterling Pound versus that of the start-up new-millenia currency the Euro. The procrastination and swaying about clean-cut breakaway from the EU via Brexit, after nearly 3-years to the month (remember 23rd of June 2016 EU Referendum day), has only made the resolve of that vote more impudent and ardent, rather than losing its distinct drive of anti-establishment anti-corporation populist ambition.

Of course the globalist capitalist cabal with the dollar-firepower have been driving down the value of the breakaway nation's currency. The Sterling has de-valued against the US Dollar from $1.50 plus to now being worth only $1.26 to the Pound. It is a similar story versus the Euro: at the Pound's peak-value against the Euro was £1.50 (in early 2004, and even a year before the "#EUref" the value was £1.40 plus), but now the Pound drifting at £1.12 to the Euro. It should be noted that the low for the Pound valuation versus the Euro was during the financial-crisis when on 1-Dec-08 the Pound reached near parity to the Euro, of £1.02 for GBP/EUR. This low for Sterling was way before Brexit was even a word in the lexicon! Therfore Mark Carney, Bank of England  governor and other so-called experts of "Project Fear", are only influencing democratic-concensus towards their global and capitalist agenda, as per their "useful idiot" office in the bigger picture. Mr Carney even apologised for stoking-up fears of Brexit  before the EU referendum in 2016. Having BOTH the leave and remain campaigns lying is material but not unheard of in political pledging.

The Convenient Lies of The So-called Experts About Brexit (Source: Twitter)

FPM's fundamental deep-insight is that the current devaluation of the Pound, in its natural up-down policy-paved-path, may have significant downside to UK tourists to America and Europe. Impact on business is mixed. UK imports become expensive, while exports from UK cheaper. The net effect is determined by whether UK has more exports than imports - our perpetual current-account deficit suggests we have more imports, in terms of goods and services. When most countries pursue the ambition of driving down their currencies to compete internationally on exports, the devaluation-rounds are partially neutralised. As coined in the phrase "the race to the bottom". Only the stand-alone countries with their own currencies, like Switzerland Sweden Norway Denmark and UK in Europe, can eventually buck that trend of raising interest rates and allow their currencies to rise. Hence FPM's medium-term curency-play thesis, which is now a long-term play due to delays in Brexit deliverance. WARNING is that anyone following this forex trade should have long-term warehousing costs for maintaing or rolloing-over position with views about being long Sterling GBP and short Euro EUR. 

In concluding FPM recommendations and remarks, we re-affirm our strong belief that Britain's manner of exit from the European Union is more relevant for the federal European project than domestic impact. FPM feel this is especially true in a world of de-weaponising economic growth objectives in light of climate change emergency. Dont's take our world for it! Read excerpt from story by Politico.EU which cites Mr Carney's apology:


"Leading Euroskeptic backbencher John Redwood, a close ally of Brexit Secretary David Davis, said Carney was right to warn European leaders that Brexit posed a greater threat to their financial stability than to the U.K.’s. Reflecting the increasingly bullish mood among Tory MPs, Redwood said: 'I’m very glad he’s come round to the logic of it. The difficult hand in these negotiations is the EU’s, not ours. We meet all of our objectives simply by leaving.'" [By Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli and Tom McTague via Politico.EU on 1-Nov-2017]

Of All The Worlds... Hardly Brexit!

The Background To Today
  
A step towards "The best of all possible worlds" will be determined in the House of Parliament in Westminster, England on Tuesday 11th of December 2018 . The Members of Parliament (MPs), or the entire elected representative MPs of United Kingdom, vote on the 'Withdrawl Agreement' to date. Its importance is the direction of Europe; or at least as far it concerns Britain's membership within the construct of the cganging European Union - EU. 

The above quote in bold parenthese is by German Gottfried Leibniz about "the claim that the actual world is the best of all possible worlds is the central argument in Leibniz's theodicy, (or his attempt to solve the problem of evil)".

The people's referendum vote in 2016 was prounced by the media as significant and given a blended name "Brexit" (known as a portmanteau word) for "Britain Exit(s)".

Since that referendum and subsequent triggering of the formal Article 50 notification to leave the EU in March 2017, Parliament are now at a stage to vote on a framework for the transition period called the "Withdrawl Agreement". As negotiated by the incumbent Government: The Conservative Party lead by Prime Minister Theresa May. 

[STOP PRESS: Tomorrow's Parliamentary Vote Is Off]

The House of Commons Parliamentary vote on the draft Withdrawal Agreement was called off the day before. The reason cited was that the draft terms would have been rejected by the House, and thus delivering a humiliating defeat for the under-siege Goverment led by Mrs May. 

The formal notification via triggering Article 50 started the two-years countdown. In which to define UK's relationship with EU going forward as an non-member. Implying that Britain is supposed to leave the 28 member country union at the end of March 2019. Whatever version of Britain exiting the EU is delivered by the Government and the Parliament is still emphatically up-in-the-air!

Democracy Is Only An Illusion

The prescient message of this article is that democracy is only an illusion. The EU Referendum is the litmus-test case study for that assertion, as concerns the principals at Fund Portfolio Management - FPM. The principals actually collectively suggest "...Hardly Brexit!", as Britain's unresolved exit from the EU persists. FPM surmise that stalling and delay via Brexit process has two important ideological reasons:

Firstly, that the original 2016 people's referendum on the issue was a deliberate political mistake. Handing over a political decision on nationhood to its island-mentality citizens should could and would only have one outcome. Therefore, the entire political class know this unwitting act of democracy decided by former Conservative PM David Cameron, will probably lead to copy-cat requests in future political decisions. If it is not utterly quoshed and debased now as the historic example of democratic and Parliamentary failure. Thus potentially setting the scene for elimination of the political class entirely, as no longer fit for purpose. Which it CLEARLY IS by evidence of delivering Brexit.

So the British government and Parliament are complicit with all political classes in evidencing or showing #BrexitShambles or #BrexitChaos to demonstrate failure of democracy in complex decisions. 

Secondly, and more intuitively the EU is also party to this sham convoluted Brexit process. More often resulting in a "Punch and Judy" show on mainstrean media globally. The theatrics, more than likely intended to demonstrate the futility of other potential EU-member countries looking for the exit-doors again. A decoupling process with any political will on both sides, which could have been achieved quicker.

The Saga of Brexit

In June 2016 the British electorate were offered a referendum to vote on whether they wanted to be "IN" or "OUT" of the EU. After an acrimonious battle by campaigns representing both sides of the bi-option vote, the people (and therefore the country) voted to be "OUT" of the relatively new Union of countries, by a divisively narrow margin of the brave courageous and discontented fool-hardy 52% of voters. 

The United Kingdom nation that pioneered many innovations and wickedness through its British Empire and Industrial Revolution is agains the protagonist of the "Divide-And-Conquer" strategic policies. Not unlike the "Commonwealth countries gaining independence from being a Colony of the British Empire", Britain will NOT be a sub-state of the EU!

Another Powerful Iconic Image From "Leave" Propagandist (Source FPM and Bounce Agency)

Very Graphically Powerful Symbol of The Blended Word  (Source: Twitter)

 
The referendum vote was prounced by the media as significant and given a blended name "Brexit" (known as a portmanteau word) for Britain Exit(s).

Since that EU referendum and subsequent triggering of the formal Article 50 notification to leave the EU in March 2017, Parliament are now at a stage to vote on a framework for the transition period called the "Withdrawl Agreement", as negotiated by the incumbent Government of the Conservative Party. The House of Commons Parliamentary vote which was called off in the eleventh hour, or the day before. The formal notification via Article 50 started the two-years countdown to define UK's relationship with EU. Implying that Britain is supposed to leave from the now 28-member states union at the end of March 2019. 

Whatever version of Britain exiting the European Union is eventually and actually delivered by the Government and the Parliament it will be the best of all worlds. Only by evil conspiritorial design rather than by some probable chance act of public democracy in action. The repeated evidence of the narrative and discourse of a nation, as portrayed in media and the new social media, is very woefully narrow and limited, see below:

The Circus of Brexit: The Ringmaster	The Circus of Brexit: The 'Remoaner' Freak
The Circus of Brexit: The 'Remoaner' Nationalist	The Circus of Brexit:The 'Remoaner' Clowns

Powerful lobbyist forces are at war in the tug-of-nations between the eternal conflicts waged with propaganda to manipulate perceptions and manufacturing concensus of populations. As evidenced by the constant media hysteria and circus surrounding Brexit (only second to Donald Trump's distraction antics in the U.S.A).  Just incidentally and coincidently and most-probably relevantly, there was a B.B.C review / show about the circus-life and its characters featuring amazing acrobats to absurd freaks. Don't forget the cast of clowns peddled out for the circus show. All celebrating the first circus's 250th anniversary in 2018.



Decoupling of Britain from the EU
 
The larger grouping of nations via globalisation would in the main be subject to a singular vision of world policy via its repeated messages forming propagandist framed-narrative and disinformation for the subjected dazed and confused population to witness and discuss. Public house or 'pub' conversations have been contextually broader about the Brexit process and ideology than the tabloid and broad-sheet analysis of so-called 'newspapers' and mainstream political news commentary. The go-between of media and politics are influential lobby groups.
 
FPM wrote earlier that "the narrative and discourse of a nation, as portrayed in media and the new social media, is very woefully narrow and limited"; well here some new additional elements toward the voting behaviour not widely mentioned:

An FPM principal and Brexiteer voted to 'Leave' so as not to be "marginalised in wider-whiter Europe". Krishna of FPM, feels he has just made his way among the British citizenry through the ages, with recent introduction to new influx Europeans. Especially as a former Commonwealth country's citizen living in London, England for 40 years. 

Another perspective of "Remain" believer resident with family in UK pre-freemovement, had the opposite feeling, of wanting to be part of her ancestral continental Europe. She was part of the remain crowd not being legally British to vote in domestic national elections but of European birth. Many like her but British-born were able to vote. So which of these people were the emphatic-voting citizen to vote on 23 June 2016? Duh!

As alluded earlier about the 'singularity of vision', globalisation in its current manifestation is the greatest fear of any expansion of territorial alliances. Admittedly, globalisation in another manifestation can also bring hope. We would be fool-hardy and quixotic to believe establishment figures have anything in mind other than entitlement from the servititude of the much and many. In the economic-wisdom of contemporary Michael Hudson, this was and is known as "rentier capitalism" from the classical idea of economic rent. 

"Economic rent – the excess of price over this “real cost” – is unearned income. It is an overhead charge for access to land, minerals or other natural resources, bank credit or other basic needs that are monopolized." https://twitter.com/Kristian_FPM/status/10706622

FPM advice everyone, including so-called journalists politicians and economists to read his work via his website www.michael-hudson.com.


In this debate and contest about the future of British peoples, in relation to a regionalised grouping of nation states in the EU. Remember the latest incarnation of the EU - forever progressing towards federal Europe - until Brexit is completed, is 28-countries as of last member country Croatia joining on 1-July-2014. A construct originated from just six equally weighted countries in terms of  wealth and population in 1950s. Read the history of the EU and its spurious advocates here.

In this 'colonialism' by any other word like 'federalism', heading towards European regionalisation with ultimate globalisation in mind, the Balkans countries and such former Soviet-sphere satelite states will be culturally over-run with McDonalds, Lidl, "Friends" TV-show lifestyle, poor command of the English language as a second langauge or non-native tongue,

 Tomorrow sees.. prescient piece_Brexit and final version by design and less by accident. May had poisoned chalice taking over - 3 defeats only comparable to James Callaghan heralding Thatcher.
Propagandists at the behest of powerful globalists at work
Mainstream representation narratives (via headlines at least) have been poor viz Twitter; greater debates in pubs somewhat but framed by media so limited
Globalisation and marginalisation pro-Out unspoken reason
Just as the remainershave two good inclu. a lot of the Brits 2nd gen originate from Europe (while 1st gen brits with long residence unable to vote .i n national elections); and Labour ideals of solidarity among workers etc is nonsense or at least double-think as there are certainly Oligopolies and less competition (quote book by The Myth of Capitalism by hfdmgr name)
"michael hudson another world" in search engine resulted in a fictional characher ("Michael Hudson was a fictional character on the NBC daytime soap opera Another World"); using language to muddy the waters eg Ingmar Bergman was muddied by Ingrid Bergman to the non-film enthusiast.

Why Its Plain To See The Geopolitical Writing On The Wall

Not only does China have state-run newspaper called the "Global Times" but their phenomenal surge economically to the position of second economic power in the world threatens the status quo of the current hegemonic power. Note "power" said not in the plural but singular.

Hence why trade-war onslaught started this month of March 2018 with steel and aluminium tariffs imposed under order of demagogue leader  of the so called "free world"  President Donald; and yesterday he further announced tariffs on $60 billion value of Chinese imports - its official its war! China retaliated with tit-for-tat action of imposing tariffs on only $3 billion on American imports, as reported by CNBC in the link provided above.


While officially an economic war, at the same said President of the United States of America  or USA, announced the biggest ever increase to its military spending. Up US$80 billion to approximately US$700 billion on military spending; or expressed as a proportion of the total spending approved in the Senate in the early hours of Friday, 54% of the total US$1,300 billion expenditure in 2018/19 will be on the industrial military complex.

Of the US$1.3 trillion spending bill passed exigently early Friday, there are some reading between the lines, other than the obvious. 

First of all this bill is also the raising of the "budget ceiling" i.e. how much spending the USA government fiscal deficit will sustain in a given year. As things stand the budget ceiling has today been raised 4 times int total in recent years (as WolfStreet.Com explains here), to avert what has been dramatically described as "government shutdown". So this current raising of the deficit "legislation would fund the government through the end of September". As for thereafter in this unique American legislation designed to ensure fiscal-budget prudence, anyones guess, or great uncertainty.

Remember that earlier this year the national debt of the USA passed the US$21 trillion mark (also described in the WolfStreet article referenced above, and shown in the chart below). This is less significant as a absolute number, with the Dollar as the reserve token currency allowing unprecedented increase in "money printing" (to make historical Weimar Republic period of hyperinflation look restrained),  but reflected as percent of GDP or what America produces, the debt is very unsustainable.
Also as a  consequence of the unsustainable ballooning debt-bubble of government, Trump is perhaps leading us to that one major dire and disastrous outcome - debt default. The caveat is, only if his "America First" protectionism does not lead to sustained growth. But as we have seen over the last 10 years of kicking the debt-calamity into the long-grass, since the credit bubble in financial services, there are other remedies than debt default and debt-destroying inflation; namely near-zero or zero interest rate policy - Z.I.R.P and debt restructuring (the bad debts racked-up by financial services are now American taxpayers debt burden through T.A.R.P and Q.E etc). Who should continue to revolt or cause civil disorder with rage, after sucessive US administrations and policies delivered austerity instead of prosperity for the masses.

 
 This is why China is THE concerning crucial factor in the economic globalisation that we have seen accelerated since the 1980s or last 40 years. Trend of globalisation stopping now is evident, for fear that China grabs the economic growth that is needed in the current G7 countries, to pay-off their debt.

Yet the economic growth solution is hampered in the face climate change concerns. Yes climate change is only too REAL and beginning to be evident as an imminent threat to humanity and the planet. As are economic-growth threat from disruptive technologies that are burgeoning through to destroy traditional trading activities (e.g. shop-front buying and selling versus Internet online markets). Another example of the titans at
 trade war: China's scale of production has massively reduced the price of solar panels as an alternative to expensive fossil-fuel based oil and gas. 

What of the disruption (which is a euphemistic term) to traditional oil and gas exploration extracting refining and distribution industries, from climate-change concerns? The write-down or destruction of these industries' assets, whose stock market values reflect status quo international free-trade policies, will not be merely disruptive! We have seen this month the stock market valuations impact on global steel and aluminium companies.
See the latest research from the CarbonTracker.Org initiative (which investment bank research will not show!): Mind The Gap: $1.6 trillion energy transition risk.

Finally, in the context of what we have discussed above there will begin as covert of subterfuge psychological operations towards a cultural revolution. "America First", mentioned earlier is only the same socio-economic political stance as once great empire hegemony of United Kingdom, who exited the regional union of group known as European Union (which had as it early phase / guise the E.E.C - the European Economic Cooperation), on June 23rd 2016. Now this great tear-away from globalisation via regionalisation, project is named simply "Brexit". Abbreviation for for Britain Exits the European Union.

The cultural revolution in countries will also be "twitching" by the masses of people away from traditional government by politicians, viz. billionaire Trump as President of the USA and Andrej Babis in Czech Republic. Political machinery, which after 40 years of liberal capitalism, a period better known as "neoliberalism", has produced the rise and decline of the middle class, while creating and enriching plutocrats and oligarchs. As represented by billionaire wealth status of the top 1% of global population. Those politicians are dubbed by Fund Portfolio Management's own reputation thesis, NoSmokeWithoutFire, hastag #politiciansRcriminals.

The cultural revolution will also take the form of behavioural changes, as led from not only disruptive industries (whether people like or accept the phenomena that we are put-through for corporations, who define and rule via Pavalov's dogs impulses, most of our lifestyles behaviours), but from controls about freedom of movement of people, and indeed movement of goods. Which in context of free-trade developments THIS month, is supportive of Fund Portfolio management's geopolitical-tension scenario in the near- to medium-term. 

In short any activities which all add to greater carbon emission, and destruction of the planet will be curtailed. As evidence look at the slow economic growth of the last 10 years imposing mass austerity on the many under neoliberalism. That was not by accident, it was by design, in the face of the most important chart to mankind (by kind permission of Nasa below citing all the evidence. Don't take FPM's word for it.





 

Vive La Fance or Vive La Republic on May 7th, 2017

The French Presidential Election of Marine LePen threatens the European Union project as much as Brexit already has done. We here at Fund Portfolio Management – FPM vehemently believe that this western phenomena of populist activism will garner a victory for the anti-EU candidate of Marine LePen.

Without going into how the historic 2^nd round run-off between two political outsiders came about, or even understanding French politics nuance it is fair to say France is in desperate need of “change”.

Economically, and in other respects like eradication of its historic socialist values is at stake. Its national debt to gross domestic product is a staggering 96%. What does that mean? This all-time high figure of debt to GDP reached in 2016 means France's taxpayers i.e. the average citizen of that country will struggle to pay “national” debt for years to come with “austerity”. The chart below shows how the debt of the country has ballooned beyond incredulity since the US-led financial crisis of 2007-08.

The change that we believe the country needs is to adopt its own currency, and take control back of its sovereignty. So getting out of EU is essential! Being in the EU allowed France to exceed the regional union's own prescribed debt management levels; while hampering it's ability to devalue it currency and export itself out of debt, in the recent past since the financial crisis. That is, growth in its economy has been anemic to non-existent due to its hands being tied by being in the EU. 

Controlling its economic levers of power, like currency alone will not fix the economic despair that the nation faces; other factors like being able to set it's own interest rates with conditions for limiting  migration should help contain the outflow of currency. This strict border-control aspect IS NOT possible under the EU rules of freedom of movement of people and  Shengen agreement; and which every student of economics would understands as a closed-economy i.e. being able to prevent money flowing out of a system. Unwinding an association of 40 years or so is not difficult, as UK proved in recently triggering Article 50.  

We strongly believe the phenomena of “globalisation”, as defined below, is singly and solely the reason for France's woes. Remember that the world globalisation did not even enter the lexicon before the 1980's. As the dictionary of those times describe what it ORIGINALLY meant, and how it entered the business then popular language vocabulary, as a good and positive phenomena.

Nationalism and protectionism as prescribed by the National Front candidate Le Pen is a MUST solution NOW. Unless of course collectively the EU can have the power to default on debts or destroy debt by allowing inflation, it is a slow road to third world country status. The strong nations in the EU bloc like Germany and Switzerland, which was originally started as an European Economic Co-operation treaty, will NOT BACKSTOP France if it collapses (fails to repay debts) under the strain of its national burdens. The Nation's debts are with countries that have large foreign currency surpluses, like its close neighbour Germany in the EU; and broader countries like China, and the oil states. This link here will take you to a France and other indebted nations' woeful economic statistics.

Like its other close neighbour across the Channel, United Kingdom who exited the EU on epochal day 23-June-2016, even though they controlled their own economic levers to a large extent, France has little other options than to leave the Union. Maybe France is happy to part of larger union like Scotland with Britain and others forming the UK. That union is 300 years old and visibly at least a healthy marriage, despite occasional public remonstrances! Or perhaps, if France exits, the EU will reform or be rolled-back to be once more an European economic cooperation area, without the the binds of a currency union, and its "Euro Zone". 

The speculations are limitless though one thing is certain, come May 7^th, the day of the French Elections we may herald “Vive La France” but not “Vive La Republic” as well! Why? Because France would affirm itself as State of Europe in federalist plans, if it elects Emmanuel Macron instead of the nationalist candidate. For fear of over-simplification a republic is independent of a monarchy. And as "Brexiteers" know, being answerable to an unelected European Commission is tantamount to reign under an absolute ruler or de facto monarchy (of bureaucrats and capitalists).