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Friday, 23 March 2018

Why Its Plain To See The Geopolitical Writing On The Wall

Not only does China have state-run newspaper called the "Global Times" but their phenomenal surge economically to the position of second economic power in the world threatens the status quo of the current hegemonic power. Note "power" said not in the plural but singular.

Hence why trade-war onslaught started this month of March 2018 with steel and aluminium tariffs imposed under order of demagogue leader  of the so called "free world"  President Donald; and yesterday he further announced tariffs on $60 billion value of Chinese imports - its official its war! China retaliated with tit-for-tat action of imposing tariffs on only $3 billion on American imports, as reported by CNBC in the link provided above.

While officially an economic war, at the same said President of the United States of America  or USA, announced the biggest ever increase to its military spending. Up US$80 billion to approximately US$700 billion on military spending; or expressed as a proportion of the total spending approved in the Senate in the early hours of Friday, 54% of the total US$1,300 billion expenditure in 2018/19 will be on the industrial military complex.
Of the US$1.3 trillion spending bill passed exigently early Friday, there are some reading between the lines, other than the obvious. 

First of all this bill is also the raising of the "budget ceiling" i.e. how much spending the USA government fiscal deficit will sustain in a given year. As things stand the budget ceiling has today been raised 4 times int total in recent years (as WolfStreet.Com explains here), to avert what has been dramatically described as "government shutdown". So this current raising of the deficit "legislation would fund the government through the end of September". As for thereafter in this unique American legislation designed to ensure fiscal-budget prudence, anyones guess, or great uncertainty.

Remember that earlier this year the national debt of the USA passed the US$21 trillion mark (also described in the WolfStreet article referenced above, and shown in the chart below). This is less significant as a absolute number, with the Dollar as the reserve token currency allowing unprecedented increase in "money printing" (to make historical Weimar Republic period of hyperinflation look restrained),  but reflected as percent of GDP or what America produces, the debt is very unsustainable.
Also as a  consequence of the unsustainable ballooning debt-bubble of government, Trump is perhaps leading us to that one major dire and disastrous outcome - debt default. The caveat is, only if his "America First" protectionism does not lead to sustained growth. But as we have seen over the last 10 years of kicking the debt-calamity into the long-grass, since the credit bubble in financial services, there are other remedies than debt default and debt-destroying inflation; namely near-zero or zero interest rate policy - Z.I.R.P and debt restructuring (the bad debts racked-up by financial services are now American taxpayers debt burden through T.A.R.P and Q.E etc). Who should continue to revolt or cause civil disorder with rage, after sucessive US administrations and policies delivered austerity instead of prosperity for the masses.

 This is why China is THE concerning crucial factor in the economic globalisation that we have seen accelerated since the 1980s or last 40 years. Trend of globalisation stopping now is evident, for fear that China grabs the economic growth that is needed in the current G7 countries, to pay-off their debt.

Yet the economic growth solution is hampered in the face climate change concerns. Yes climate change is only too REAL and beginning to be evident as an imminent threat to humanity and the planet. As are economic-growth threat from disruptive technologies that are burgeoning through to destroy traditional trading activities (e.g. shop-front buying and selling versus Internet online markets). Another example of the titans at
 trade war: China's scale of production has massively reduced the price of solar panels as an alternative to expensive fossil-fuel based oil and gas. 

What of the disruption (which is a euphemistic term) to traditional oil and gas exploration extracting refining and distribution industries, from climate-change concerns? The write-down or destruction of these industries' assets, whose stock market values reflect status quo international free-trade policies, will not be merely disruptive! We have seen this month the stock market valuations impact on global steel and aluminium companies.
See the latest research from the CarbonTracker.Org initiative (which investment bank research will not show!): Mind The Gap: $1.6 trillion energy transition risk.

Finally, in the context of what we have discussed above there will begin as covert of subterfuge psychological operations towards a cultural revolution. "America First", mentioned earlier is only the same socio-economic political stance as once great empire hegemony of United Kingdom, who exited the regional union of group known as European Union (which had as it early phase / guise the E.E.C - the European Economic Cooperation), on June 23rd 2016. Now this great tear-away from globalisation via regionalisation, project is named simply "Brexit". Abbreviation for for Britain Exits the European Union.

The cultural revolution in countries will also be "twitching" by the masses of people away from traditional government by politicians, viz. billionaire Trump as President of the USA and Andrej Babis in Czech Republic. Political machinery, which after 40 years of liberal capitalism, a period better known as "neoliberalism", has produced the rise and decline of the middle class, while creating and enriching plutocrats and oligarchs. As represented by billionaire wealth status of the top 1% of global population. Those politicians are dubbed by Fund Portfolio Management's own reputation thesis, NoSmokeWithoutFire, hastag #politiciansRcriminals.

The cultural revolution will also take the form of behavioural changes, as led from not only disruptive industries (whether people like or accept the phenomena that we are put-through for corporations, who define and rule via Pavalov's dogs impulses, most of our lifestyles behaviours), but from controls about freedom of movement of people, and indeed movement of goods. Which in context of free-trade developments THIS month, is supportive of Fund Portfolio management's geopolitical-tension scenario in the near- to medium-term. 

In short any activities which all add to greater carbon emission, and destruction of the planet will be curtailed. As evidence look at the slow economic growth of the last 10 years imposing mass austerity on the many under neoliberalism. That was not by accident, it was by design, in the face of the most important chart to mankind (by kind permission of Nasa below citing all the evidence. Don't take FPM's word for it.

This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct  measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased  since the Industrial Revolution.  (Source: [[LINK||http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/||NOAA]])


Thursday, 15 March 2018

Plutocracy Plots With Trump


President of the USA Donald Trump: Examplification of Wealth in Politics (Source FPM, Twitter)

[This is an exqusite excerpt and edited narrative used by FundPortfolioManagement to understand explain and interpret the paramount risk of today #Geopolitics other than #climatechange - q.v. footnotes] 

Masterful and arrogant wealth, known as “Plutocracy”, created largely by Government protection of its profits, not content with its domination and influence within a single party of Republicans, had sought to corrupt them both. And to that end had insinuated itself into the primaries, in order that no candidates might be nominated whose views were not in accord with theirs. Such was the political socio-economic system of American democracy that manifested in turns the “Capital Crook” Clintons and “Black Lives Matter” Obama.

By the use of all the money that could be spent, by a complete and compact organization and by the most infamous sort of deception regarding their real opinions and intentions, Plutocracy had succeeded in electing its “Apprentice Trump” creature to the Presidency. There was no longer a need for the middle-men “politiciansRcriminals” at the White House. Plutocracy had a “corruption fund” of millions of dollars with which to mislead those that could be misled, and to debauch the weak and uncertain.

Plutocracy had a marvelous aptitude for political manipulation and organisation, and with President Trump’s malversation they forged a subtle chain with which to hold in subjection the natural impulses of the people. Sometimes the public had been mistaken as to the true character of their Presidential office. “Wealth” or “the interests” was openly for or against certain men and measures.

Trump’s first move was to confer with Plutocracy, the high priests of finance, and unfold his plan to them, explaining how essential was secrecy. Plutocracy’s influence throughout commercial America was absolute. Their wealth, their ability and even more the sum of the capital they could control through the banks, trust companies and industrial organisations, which they dominated, made their word as potent as that of a monarch.

Trump then transferred these corruption-fund amounts to the private bank of his son-in-law perhaps, who would then become final paymaster. The result was that the public had no chance of obtaining any knowledge of the corruption fund or how it was spent. The plan was simple, the result effective. He had no one to interfere with him. It was a one man power which in the hands of one possessing ability of the first class, is always potent for good or evil.

Not only did Trump win the Presidency, but he also planned to bring under his control both the Senate and the Supreme Court. He counted upon having a good majority of the Senate, because there were already fifty-one Republican Senators upon whom he could rely in any serious attack upon corporate wealth. As to the Supreme Court, of the nine justices there were three that were what he termed "safe and sane," and another two that could be counted upon in a serious crisis. Then there would be an easy working majority.

Trump’s plan contemplated nothing further than this. His intention was to block all legislation adverse to the interests. He would have no new laws to fear, and of the old, the Supreme Court would properly interpret them. The President was the centre, and from him radiated everything appertaining to measures affecting "the interests".

Get Ready for the First Shocks of Trump’s Disaster Capitalism -Naomi Klein - January 24 2017