The Great Debt Write-Off [unpublished thoughts re-discovered Jan’23] – post RIP VW

Economies of the world in slow transition is the likely cause of the stagnation in economic activity, as reflected by traditional measures since the financial crash of 2007-08. The effectivness of the continuance of current monetary-stimulus policies have been considerably questioned. Is it merely blowing small capital-markets related bubbles at the cost of a monumental public debt-bomb? Some have argued Government debt financed spending caused a bubble in commodities and propped-up the unrealistic real estate/ property values. Others suggest public funds used for economic stability policies have artificially kept interest rates low, and prevented mass scale corporate insolvencies and debt default. In Great Britain yet another round of so-called “Quantitive Easing” was instigated by its Canadian central bank governor Mark Carney. This monetary re-assurance was allegedly to support the expected slump following Britain's public election to exit from the European Union in June 2016. FPM believe the economic-policy course needs to be re-directed towards real fiscal or Keynesian-driven expansion , rather than only capital market support. The real economy or at least the public sector spending has been squeezed ie in recession and austerity; while financial markets and real estate and other selected sectors of the economy (military spending) have been supported. Once the will is there the way to a “sustainable new paradaigm of economics” is possible. The drivers for the new paradigm of sustainable economics; certainly a shift away from the current neoliberal agenda are numerous: a) stagnant state of trade and commerce in traditional sectors (eg fossil fuel energy exploration and production) b) much needed overhaul in E.S.G principles (eg combatting systemic corporate corruption) c) excessive public private and corporate debt and eventual need for debt destruction “The illustrious manager of Pimco’s bonds funds, Mr William Gross, stated that on a long-term basis, governments are likely to use financial repression, where the rate of inflation is higher than bond yields, to erode the value of sovereign debt over time. The late great Barton Biggs also stated in Mid-2011 that debt devaluation is less painful than debt destruction as a long-term course.” d) public-policy led geopolitical agendas (eg competitive foreign exchange devaluations; nationalism spurning (NOT SPAWNING) globalisation – eg “Brexit”; ) e) climate change concerns changes everything (redundant assets ie los f) loss of trust in politics spawning alternative leadership & policy direction (eg Trump in US, Corbyn in UK; g) An Olympian ideal of greatness from Brazil Rio 2016 of national pride #ProudBrit via #Brexit… we were and are worldly without subscribing to clubs of nonsense! #BBCCoverage TaekwondoBritGirl

Social Cost Of Disaster Capitalism

At Fund Portfolio Management we have noticed a singular disturbing feature of late-stage  neoliberal economics, that of the State as the lender of last resort. Who bailed out the financial services citing imminent economic-collapse during the 2007-08 housing-bubble led 'Great Recession'? Who is bailing-out cov-id19 pandemic stricken companies, and this time individuals as well? The answer is not the government or central bank or other syndicated intiative. The actual answer is the humble tax-paying public at large.

This subsidization of the economy is not a tenet of neoliberal's free-market economics adopted since the 1980s in USA and UK. A model of business activity, which as we understand originates from ganster-manifested Chicago School of Business. And propagated by now-deceased economist Milton Friedman.

So today we are seeing this headline from UK government's treasury minister Rishi Sunak's autum Spending Review:

UK announces largest peacetime borrowing ever as Covid fuels economic plunge not seen for 300 years

 This is an impossible and pernicious situation for a nation's taxpayers to be indebted. While at the same time politicians are rhetorically policy-making towards smaller / less government under the pre-text premise of free-market capitalism. This contradiction between "laissez-faire" of less government yet the evident bigger balance sheets of governments globally, is most deliberate with various agenda propelled into effect during periods of crisis. This modus of operandi permitted by Government  allows for new private opportunities and enterprise sponsored by state apparatus i.e. funded by, you guessed it, the humble tax-payer. Naomi Klein, writing an epocal tome every decade or so, described this form of free-market as "disaster capitalism" in her book "The Shock Doctrine".

The 'borrowing' amount announced in the above headline by UK Treasury is Sterling £394 billion or US$524 billion for fiscal year 2020-21. To put some perspective, when UK government was asked to continue feeding the nation's children on welfare benefits over the school holidays, at a paltry cost of £20 million, the Government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson initially declined.

By declaring wars, financial crisis, pandemics, terroism, AIDS/HIV, etcetra the  taxpayer can stump-up, and be deemed rational and even prudent reason to open the purse-strings of the nations treasury, as decided by your friendly neighbourhood politician representing YOUR interests. Yet when thousands of children die worldwide every year from water-borne diseases and without medicines, or when children may go hungry over school-holidays, there isn't the lead or the will from politicians to extend beyond allocated budgeted expenses. This is not merely shameful, but a perfidy committed by those we trust to make decisions on our behalf.

However much politicians assert collectively using the oft repeated "nation's interest", they are not in a bubble at Westminster or White-House to lead the cry and charge for fraudulent social-cost-private-profits. They are and have been puppets of the powerful industry lobbyists, and on whose behalf the politicians betray the wider taxpayer. Of course the politicians have motives for their benevolence at the taxpayers' cost. The term "revolving doors" describes one incentive: that of a big-pay job or contract in private enterprise when their political-journey ends, or indeed during it, Not to mention speaking / lecture circuit rewards if high-profile politician, or even the opportunity to be 'gonged' are all motives, among others.

 So if #politiciansRcriminals (a degree hashtag awarded by FPM's sister pet-project NoSmokeWithoutFire:OfRepuation), are not in a bubble deciding the fate of OUR national indebtedness, what role does media and lobbyists play. As the Hamlet shakespearean phrase goes  "There's something rotten in Denmark", and FPMs #NSWF:Reputation wants to make sure the smell attach to them. 'Them' being the generalised perfidious politician and their institutional and individual retinue.

FPM are not preaching from their high-horse, instead relishing the enterprise opportunity to sheriff the outlawed wild west of politics and capitalism, for taxpayers and investors alike. An ungrounded mission statement perhaps.

To ground itself in the normality of financial fund portfolio management context, we wanted to convey a brief take on the pandemic of cov-id19 as a economic outlook. The Chancellor of the Exchequer who announced the pandemic disaster spending of billions of pounds of taxpayer largesse, is Rishi Sunak. His credentials are interesting but not the scope of this already meandering report!

 In November 2020 in the Government's budget spending review, and coincidentally following the announcement of succesful cov-id19 vaccine trials, Rishi Sunak stated: “Our health emergency is not yet over and our eco

nomic emergency has only just begun”. To FPM this was a dire warning from a former Goldman Sachs employee. We already knew that the circumstances of shutting down AND financially supporting vast swathes of global economy, under the premise of a lockdown to prevent the spread of an infectious influenza-like virus, was going to be big: we coined "austerity-on-steriods".

[pic of ballooning debt for perspective]

The indebtedness means the UK nation is not going to see prosperity from being the 6th wealthiest nation, but austerity for majority of the population from nationwide obligation of paying-down the national debt via reducing annual fiscal debt. We will all have to do with privations. In FPM mantra of "Think Global Act Local", we see the privations already manifested through the changes hailed by the pandemic. Popularly the media has introduced to the public the idea of a "new normal". Whereas the top-of-pyramid capitalists and industrialists of the World Economic Forum, have hailed it "The Great Reset", or "The Fourth Industrial Revolution".

For instance, locally it was decided by municpal government of Lambeth Council, that they could not maintain two green-bowling turfs, due to costs outweighing its use and revenues. So they had decided to hive off a part of the public common land for use as a privately-run commercial puttting-in-the-park venture. And what passed for public consultatation was a local council-liasing community group, constituting lowest rung-of-ladder politicians known as Councillors and other locally-vested individuals, rubber-stamping the Council's decision. The real community of neighbour around the two bowling greens got to hear of these plans, and protested and now have stay-of-execution granted by neighbouring Wandsworth Council's Planning Application Committee. As they still retain those planning-right due the part of Clapham Common falling between the two council boundaries.

In the context of social cost of disaster capitalism, I will point the finger at Lambeth Council which is perennially seen as mismanaging its finances - local disaster capitalism. That time Council citing central-government diktat of "austerity" from the financial crisis of 2007-09. The social cost is the loss of public common land for 15-years initial lease to the crazy-golf enterprise - the resident disaster is Lambeth Council management. Some may see it as viable alternative re-designation of former disused bowling greens to modern practical social convenience with a profit-incentive. Loss of sporting activity for leisure profits underlies the surface fluff and nonsense. Also, FPM see it as Council mismanaged public asset which has been deliberately under-funded (as turf has long passed its sell-by date, and any decent bowls player would not be seen on it!), and degraded to a point where alternative uses had to be considered but not with underfunded Council monies, but as a private-profit venture. This is the examplar of the Shock Doctrine, and the rise of disaster capitalism that Naomi Klein warned of.

Private-Profit at Social-Cost from Disaster-Capitalism is a formula to be wary of and prevented locally, then globally. That is the morale of the story, So the pandemic is the disaster, the social cost is the indebtedness of taxpayer, and the capitalism is everything that can exploit the indebtedness and the pandemic. So we know where the private-profits from taxpayer largesse will accrue: usual misfits of pharmaceutical giants and their offsprings (currently Pfizer and Moderna are leading the offerings and have a viable vaccine to save the world

 

Airlines & Other International Passenger Carriers Should Be Left To Flounder Without Taxpayer Bailout In Covid19

(This "Airlines" commentary originally posted on Reddit under a sub-Reddit called "Political Discussions" with 987K members on 6th October 2020. But was rejected on the basis of "karma" points - see below! This is flagrant technocracy controlling freedom of expression.)

As manifold reasons suggest, airlines and such related industry as fright and cruise-line shipping have thrived and burgeoned since the advent of low-cost aircraft passengers flights and international trade in the 1970s.We vaguely remember Sir Freddy Laker and his attempt to break into the natural monopoly of national-airline carrier British Airways at the time in the UK.

Up to 2001, when so-called terrorist aeroplanes crashed into the twin Trade Towers in New York, America, the airline industry and by implication international passenger travel has grown at an alarming rate. Similar parallels can be drawn with related transport industry sub-sectors in developed countries.

"Alarm" due to known and intended consequences wreaked on climate and environment by the exponential use of fossil-fuels in transportation. These emergent "gypsy-like" traveller class of holiday-makers and subsequent mass migration. Former flargely transported from relatively rich countries and latter class from developing countries.

Sticking with the specific example, these largely monopoly national airline carriers allowed the world to get smalller. As did, around similar time, the growth of international shipping freight, in the name of business expansion and growth via international trade.

This "business-expansion" in the name of "economic growth" by initially American and European conglomerates led to "globalisation of everything". A growth sponsored and backed by their respective and successive governments as source of prosperity for the people since JFK in USA, and others elsewhere. From fast-food and novel drinks (McDonalds + Coca Cola) to widespread inter-racial marriages and homogenous culture-spread via Hollywood, and "Friends" tv-series televised globally through national television networks.

The complete globalisation of media has led to the international boon and bane of covid19; among other deliberate intention of coalescing media and corporate power around the "international capitalists"  were media barons. National sovereign socio-political and economic structures have also been grouped as innocuous sounding "multilateral agencies". The UN, Nato, World Bank, IMF, etc are the hijacked bodies of "globalisation of everything". Incidentally, W.H.O  in 2020 joined that illustrious list of multilateral agencies setup to promoting trade, financial-harmony, world-peace and now health? Pun intended!

These above rationales are not anecdotal observations but mere common-sense conclusions which can be backed-up by valid statistics (as opposed to manipulated statistics presented for cov-id19) . Such as the Baltic Freight Transport Index, as indicator of the growth in international trade, and other such benchmark measurement of passenger and product transportation growth between 1970 to 2001 and beyond.

Please do comment as appendage to the brief outlines of many relevantly co-joined ideas above - not necessarily as criticism or plauditary but as debate commentary.

(This is an excerpt of themes developed by author Krishna Siva on his enterprise's little-trodden website: www.fundportfoliomanagement.com & their #NoSmokeWithoutFire:OfReputation aka #NSWF:Reputation)

Stealth Super Slowdown of Fossil-Fuelled Economy

Coronovirus has implications as a control of the economic ebb and flow we can expect from 2020 onwards. From global government efforts to mitigate climate change. A "Super Slowdown" of the "Fossil-Fuelled Economy" is the necessity.

Coronavirus started in December 2019 is now reportedly expected to become a pandemic virus, at least according to some "cheap" expert (as in paid-for) who was rolled-out by BBC News. The globalisation of the virus was the headline-news story of the day. As we will observe, the re-named virus, officially "covid-19" is causing business and economic disruptions.

Coronavirus Distraction More Than "Disruption"

Never mind that being the headline news, but on the same day of 24th February 2020, on which journalist Julian Assange is facing a sham hearing on whether he should be extradited to America. His alleged crime is exposing war-crimes of America via WikiLeaks. Journalistic press-freedom should be paramount concern for the world. This hearing in Woolwich Crown Courts (see below about this Court) is in remote South East London, where he is being held in H.M.P Belmarsh Prison.  (Update here: "Your Man in the Public Gallery – Assange Hearing Day 1" and another from Consortium News with Live Updates From The Hearing Here.)

"Woolwich Crown Court is nothing but the physical negation of the presumption of innocence, the very incarnation of injustice in unyielding steel, concrete and armoured glass. It has precisely the same relationship to the administration of justice as Guantanamo Bay or the Lubyanka. It is in truth just the sentencing wing of Belmarsh prison." Craig Murray 25/02//2020

Yet "Disruption" Evidenced By Stock Markets Tumble

 Also that same day saw US$ 1.7 trillion wiped-off global stock markets due to participants seemingly pricing-in coronavirus becoming "pandemic" category. Allegedly from shareholders selling stocks affected by coronavirus global disruptions. FPM's sister enterprise LineBall Tennis who agitated on Twitter, shown below; had an understanding of what has greater impact on wider population - loss of freedom of press or variant of common flu:

Fake Tweet! Source:Twitter @LineBallTennis, CNN

The crux of the matter as a coronavirus distraction. Our understanding is that Covid-19 is virulent variant of influenza also known as "flu". They both have similarities that both are deadly especially to vulnerable categories, as it is do do with breathing and respiratory systems of our body. Despite the media frenzy and hysteria (as they have to propagandise 24-hour news cycle), the less media-minded people understand that a much greater proportion of people die annually from the flu, than have globally died from Covid-19.

The Importance of Business-Cycles In Forecasting

We at Financial Portfolio Management understand business cycles since the fledgeling organisation's founder initiated a dissertation when at Middlesex Unversity in his youth about business-cycle boom-and-bust, specicially studying the "Kondratieff Cycle" economic cycle factors.

 Professional investor greed and fear means share price valuations are currently trending ever higher at near record levels (see proxy FTSE100 chart below). These dizzy heights justified or otherwise WILL cause speculator trader and real-money investors to expereince wild uncertainties / swings, especially before settling into a secular reversal or possible up-trend. This is a precept about technical chart analysis and mean reversion in market behavioural analysis. Which is more short-term orientated cycles of stocks and stock markets.

Proxy FTSE-100 Near Record Levels. Source: Yahoo, FPM

So what is the fundamental long-term catalyst for putting the brakes on global economic activity? Which is undoubtedly causing catastrophic human-added climate change. The evidence of climate-changing is before our eyes via high definition mainstream television news. We've seen flooding in wetter climates, droughts with forest fires and bush fires in drier climates, and so on. The evidence is numerous. Mainstream news source nowadays bang-on about it' but not as prominently featured 10-20 years back sadly; or even further back when the science and extrapolation of trends first suggested "global warming from anthropic activities".

Slowdown Or Disruption Of Economic Activity

 

Every NATO or UN country will manifest a particular "shock" catalyst which results in effective slowdown of the real and financial-market economies. 'Brexit' as global known enduring phenomenon in United Kingon, as a political movement is designed to curtail economic activities, especially through short-term disruption to free movement of people and goods. Since Brexit is 'not done' despite Tory rhetoric and shock democracy of 2016 referendum, reverberating as "Brexit In Name Only", it is business as usual. FPM as firm Brexit-supporters say sham European Union is continuance of neoliberalism (see FPM's meaning of 'neoliberalism'), but rolled out to the newcomers from former U.S.S.R eastern European countries. When eventually Brexit gets done intra-European Union short-haul flights will be controlled. As necessary to meet 2030-50 set emissions targets for countries. Also as a footnote, UN climate-change summit will hosted by Glasgow, Scotland UK dubbed "COP26".

FPM's Understanding of Neoliberalism in Manifestation - Source: Naomi Klein "The Shock Doctrine" 2007

FPM is expecting further geopolitical fall-out from de-globalisation of the socio-economic political process. As well as Brexit, "America First" and POTUS Trump's border-wall war-cries are all part of stealth-super-slowdown in neoliberal globalisation, but dressed-up as populist nationalism or quarantined cornoavirus. FPM further believe there is global backlash to the liberal democracies of the West, which has prosperously benefited the few at the cost of austerity for the many. Not a political slogan but a fact. Austerity or poverty also rationlise the wider population from affording holidays and travel. Therby reducing economic activity.

Of course referring to the wealth-inequality issue, and circumstances of 2007-09 global financial-crisis. Especially how the ridiculed taxpayer via its government saved banks and other financial institutions from insolvency. After banks' self-regulating profligacy of virtually gambling. And of course regime-change agenda followed by western democracies in the Middle East / Gulf region. To keep the war-machine in these old-power countries chugging along. Again, who is paying for waging wars in the Gulf? Yep, the #stupidelectorate taxpayer! (Stupid Electorate hashtag was coined for some of the UK voters after the December 2019 General Election defeat in UK of Jeremy Corbyn and Labour Party)

"Stealth Super Slowdown" has to happen in the name of saving the planet and environment as we know it. We all acknowledge China's emergence to eminent economic super-power is the future driving-engine of global economic growth in the 21st Century. So by China peddling its soft-power of business-wealth potential, it can perhaps direct a new sustainable way of achieving economic life other than from fossil-fuels based industries. But the shock-impetus towards stealth slowdown of China's powerhouse economy is underway, see below excerpt from Reuters. Reminder that generally China's economy has been growing at double-digit rate or averaging 7% economic growth.

Economic data for January had been fairly upbeat, but analysts have since sharply cut their forecasts for economic growth in China. J.P. Morgan now expects Chinese GDP to shrink 3.9% this quarter, while Capital Economics sees it outright contracting. Reuters 27-Feb-20

Brexit:Winner DOESN'T Take It All

What is unfathomably UNUSUAL at least in my mind, is the perversion and corruption of the “Leave” result of the 2016 European Union referendum.

In our first-past-the-post system of voting or even a simple majority in referendum, I find it astonishing that the “remain” campaign has been emboldened and active three-and-half years after the decision of the mentioned referendum. If there is to be no finality of decision where 17.4 million people of the electorate participated, and in the passage of time the losing campaign want to overturn that decision, then certain past election results retrospectively can also be made null-and-void. This critique is also extended to parallels of the Scottish Independent referendum.

Why don’t we the people / “demos” have different referendums on variety of issues all the time – and the Brexit impasse has highlighted the less than noble integrity of the representative democracy in the House of Commons? Jeremy Corbyn has pledged referendums if Labour Party is elected in this vital General Election 2019. As a staunch “leaver” I can just about stomach that (and if “remain” wins we’ll campaign in time to reverse that decision – haha!). I believe that’s why the EU referendum leaflet we ALL received mentioned akin to “once in a generational vote” - remainers don’t geddit!

The Anti-Hero: Corbyn (Source: Twitter)

A local case in point of how Parliamentary representative democracy deceives the British people: the previous Tory Battersea MP was an “IN” voter but decided to respect the “national” majority of Euref 2016 and campaigned “OUT” of EU. And indeed in fairness to sitting MP Marsha De Cordova, her “Remain” stance is representative of her constituency vote, which was pro-Brexit by some 62%, I believe. In contrast to Marsha, another local Labour Party MP for Vauxhall Kate Hoey, in her constituency voted to remain in EU, but she has vociferously supported “leave” result. And here’s the rub of the double-speak dissemble we don’t know how the respective MPs actually voted at the secret ballot in EUREF’16.

Brexit Results Conundrum (Source: Twitter - pending validity check)

From the unverified graphisc above we have a remainer Parliament with 486 Remain MPs, at odds with 406 Leave voting constituencies. Democracy in the UK is alive and kicking - Bah!

And here we are, Wednesday's dissolution of the House of Commons for the General Election 2019 on December 12th. There is only one clear vote for the Britons eligible to vote, that can gain a majority and pass through a Brexit deal of any kind and an even unlikely Remain referendum choice.
All other options are distraction and likely to split House of Commons and back at the same standstill / impasse. Britons were here in 1979 with country at standstill from Union strikes but this time its Parliament bringing the country to standstill - who was ushered in as PM then?!

Guest Post: Last Forty Neocon Years - Kaput!

Mark Blyth’s Incisive Post-Crisis Takedown: “A Brief History of How We Got Here and Why”

Posted on August 5, 2019 by Yves Smith

Mark Blyth, the Brown political scientist of “The Hamptons are not a defensible position” fame, has a must-watch video of a presentation, A Brief History of How We Got Here and Why, which we’ve embedded below. We’re featuring it despite the lack of a transcript. Even though Blyth presents a fair bit of detail that is familiar to readers, he manages the difficult task of synthesizing it in a way that generates novel observations. It doesn’t hurt that Blyth is also colorful and a high bit rate transmitter. This video is a fantastic way to get people you know who’ve started to develop doubts about orthodox stories about how the economy works to see thing in a different light.

Blyth argues that the world has been through three policy regimes, using computers as an analogy and arguing that like computers, capitalist systems all have the same major components and economic ideology is the “software”. 

The regime first was the gold standard, which allowed for international capital mobility without inflation, favoring capital over workers. That regime worked from roughly 1870 to World War I. As academics like Peter Temin described in detail, after the Great War, European economies tried to restore the gold standard, and Temin argues that those efforts produced the Depression.  
The Depression ushered in policy changes which eventually produced the next era, which started after World War II. The policy objective of this era was full employment. Cross-border capital flows were restricted, countries were more autarky-like than now, and governments were economic activists. Blyth quips that no one knew who central bankers were back then.

This era broke down with the 1970s inflation. But Blyth argues that the trigger was that the share of GDP going to labor had become intolerably high to businesses and investors. Inflation also favors labor over capital by eroding the real value of debt. The answer to that was the capital-favoring, globalist, inflation-hostile neoliberal era.

Blyth stresses that what happened after the 2008 financial crisis, which resulted from the failings of the neoliberal regime, the effort to restore the old system, is an unnatural response which will only lead to intensification of the underlying stressors, like rising levels of private debt, greater income inequality, and even more financialization.

Only an economist could see climate change as hopeful. Blyth sees climate change as discrediting the populist right, which has no answers for this problem, and libertarians, who are allergic to state action, when that will not only become necessary but desperately sought after.

"I don’t want to diminish your appetite for watching this video-talk by saying more, particularly since a lot of the fun of a Blyth talk is in his asides where he present things as obvious, and even if you kinda-sorta knew that particular factoid, you probably didn’t have as pithy a formulation as he does."

The video!

Principal K Kristian Siva's of FPM addendum chart:

 

Is Farage The New Soros For The Euro?

George Soros famed from a multi-billion dollar hedge fund as "the man who broke the Bank of England" is a popular narrative of the mainstream financial media.

Frage: the Face of Brexit - An Anti-Hero or Man of The People? (Source: Twitter)

Yet I have not heard the context of the man who broke the British Parliament! Witness the political impasse over Brexit to Easter 2019 and one can deduce that Nigel Farage, the figurehead of the "Leave European Union" movement, did indeed break the House of Commons. He did not make money to the tune of a billion dollars, but gained an ardent reputation against status quo (of which he is admittedly low on the scale).

The Betrayal Of Britain By Incumbent Politicians June 2016-19 (Source: Twitter)

Fund Portfolio Management's principals feel they do not need to deliberate further about the above statement. As an open-minded read of mainstream media - msm - background to "Brexit" clearly indicates. Mr Farage like Mr Soros, believed in fundamental macro tenets, and stuck to his guns when others were merely interested in the ideas that prevailed. What was this fundamental belief? As most financial pundits will know, Mr Soros believed that the exchange rate of the Pound Sterling versus the benchmark German DeutscheMark was fundamentally too high in the Exchange Rate Mechanism. ERM was the fore-runner mechanism which decided the exchange-rates between member states; before the fully-fledged Euro currency that we know today. Equally, whether by design or accident, the EU is an assembly expanding from six equal-wealth member states to what is now a twenty-seven member states (excluding Britain pending Brexit), is and was fundamentally a flawed crrangement.

The flaws of the EU are VISIBLE in its current dysfunction, as well as the benefits accrued to the newer member states in "sweetners. The single pointed flaw is conceptual. Without having a tiered system, how can one-rulebook be applied to 27 disparate countries? Then if there is discretion, like France and most members exceeding the national debt to GDP limit of 60%, then what's the raison d'etre of EU bureaucracy. The much called for reforms of the EU have not happened, which was a reason for UK calling for an EU referendum on leaving or staying. And consequent Brexit, which is still pending at time of writing, voted by the British people.

[Article originally started on 2-May-2019 NOW continued 14-June-2019]

The culmination of Brexit issue is the single most important policy decision of western globalisation of the past 40-50 years and the next 30 years. This is especially important when considered in connection with climate-change. In order to reduce environment damage and the climate damage it seems obvious that we have to put the brakes on economic activity. Implicit or explicity stated. Or what we at FPM suspect, the global economy has to or is shifting or transitioning towards a "green economy". Some are vanguard pioneers in this. Others are in slow realisation while fronting a total denial of the potentially devastating problem: FPM cite the current POTUS and leader of the Western world Donald Trump and his administration. However, politics being by nature a two-faced profession, maybe Mr Trump is slowing the two giant global growth engines via his trade-wars and sanctions spat with China. As much as Brexit-deliverance will disrupt free movement and of goods and people, and thereby reduce carbon-footprint and CO2 emissions.

Another important but seemingly overlooked concern about Brexit deliverance, or mired by propagandists narratives, is "democracy". Defined as the organisation of society decided by the people. Whereas "aristocracy" meant society organised by the elite or best people. Or as FPM believes, we live in an actual society organised for "wealth", known as "plutocracy" but parading as deluded-democracy. FPM know we are right: just look at the scale of the wealth inequality in societies globally. As vividly described in book by Thomas Piketty in "Capital in The Twenty-First Century", or simply searched on internet; example from 2018 passive-article in Guardian newspaper.

The Book Describing Wealth Inequality

The Book Describing Big Government and Big Business Collusion

But democracy or people need to be heard and will indeed be heard on matters of personal and wider passions of mind. That was description of a typical Brexit mentality. Don't interpret FPM's assertion as an opinion, just look at the voting statement of the people of Britain and the EU in the European elections results of May 2019 (more in next paragreph). Again, don't forget that, and start to view or read the shameless manipulation of the voting-results by "propagandist pratts". Who interpret the facts as "win for Green parties" or "win Liberal Democratic". No, no and no! Anyone can interpret facts, for instance, one can justifiably postulate whether we really need another tier of trans-national government for Europe, or elsewhere. While most people do not want more Government, and fed up with existing structures of managing society in the interest of the rich and powerful, we are concerned about the rise of institutional fascism. Not to be confused with populism and acts of democracy like the Brexit or Arab Spring or Gilet Jaunes; but actual instituional people in governments and multi-national corporations, as well as global investors or financiers. Hence why FPM referenced the 1980s book "Friendly Fascism - The New Face of Power in America" by Bertram Gross above.

People voted clearly, at least in England, for the 3-weeks-in-existence, Brexit Party and its figurehead from former UKIP party Nigel Farage. And the dumb-founded establishment are still scratching their monkey-brains and fighting against this populist uprising and revolt by the "demos" vote. "Demos" is the Greek word for people in society. As if further evidence of voting motives, and how Tory MPs in House of Parliament view the issue of Brexit (leaving it or remaining), witness who won the first and subsequent round of voting for the new Conservative leader or would be Prime Minister. At time of writing, Conservative members vote for the final two of Boris Johnson and Jeremy "Msprint" Hunt!

The Outright Brexit Supporter Leads Tory Leadership Race (Source: Twitter)

Yes you got it, a Euro-sceptic and figurehead of the Leave EU campaign Boris Johnson is leading the race.FPM actually rated and follow the diary of a true Brit and Brexit-man John Redwood, Conservative MP for Wokingham since 1987.

While it is true Fund Portfolio Management is about financial perspectives, and less about politicial upheavals, we have been pushing the idea of the fundamental long-term value of the British Sterling Pound versus that of the start-up new-millenia currency the Euro. The procrastination and swaying about clean-cut breakaway from the EU via Brexit, after nearly 3-years to the month (remember 23rd of June 2016 EU Referendum day), has only made the resolve of that vote more impudent and ardent, rather than losing its distinct drive of anti-establishment anti-corporation populist ambition.

Of course the globalist capitalist cabal with the dollar-firepower have been driving down the value of the breakaway nation's currency. The Sterling has de-valued against the US Dollar from $1.50 plus to now being worth only $1.26 to the Pound. It is a similar story versus the Euro: at the Pound's peak-value against the Euro was £1.50 (in early 2004, and even a year before the "#EUref" the value was £1.40 plus), but now the Pound drifting at £1.12 to the Euro. It should be noted that the low for the Pound valuation versus the Euro was during the financial-crisis when on 1-Dec-08 the Pound reached near parity to the Euro, of £1.02 for GBP/EUR. This low for Sterling was way before Brexit was even a word in the lexicon! Therfore Mark Carney, Bank of England  governor and other so-called experts of "Project Fear", are only influencing democratic-concensus towards their global and capitalist agenda, as per their "useful idiot" office in the bigger picture. Mr Carney even apologised for stoking-up fears of Brexit  before the EU referendum in 2016. Having BOTH the leave and remain campaigns lying is material but not unheard of in political pledging.

The Convenient Lies of The So-called Experts About Brexit (Source: Twitter)

FPM's fundamental deep-insight is that the current devaluation of the Pound, in its natural up-down policy-paved-path, may have significant downside to UK tourists to America and Europe. Impact on business is mixed. UK imports become expensive, while exports from UK cheaper. The net effect is determined by whether UK has more exports than imports - our perpetual current-account deficit suggests we have more imports, in terms of goods and services. When most countries pursue the ambition of driving down their currencies to compete internationally on exports, the devaluation-rounds are partially neutralised. As coined in the phrase "the race to the bottom". Only the stand-alone countries with their own currencies, like Switzerland Sweden Norway Denmark and UK in Europe, can eventually buck that trend of raising interest rates and allow their currencies to rise. Hence FPM's medium-term curency-play thesis, which is now a long-term play due to delays in Brexit deliverance. WARNING is that anyone following this forex trade should have long-term warehousing costs for maintaing or rolloing-over position with views about being long Sterling GBP and short Euro EUR. 

In concluding FPM recommendations and remarks, we re-affirm our strong belief that Britain's manner of exit from the European Union is more relevant for the federal European project than domestic impact. FPM feel this is especially true in a world of de-weaponising economic growth objectives in light of climate change emergency. Dont's take our world for it! Read excerpt from story by Politico.EU which cites Mr Carney's apology:


"Leading Euroskeptic backbencher John Redwood, a close ally of Brexit Secretary David Davis, said Carney was right to warn European leaders that Brexit posed a greater threat to their financial stability than to the U.K.’s. Reflecting the increasingly bullish mood among Tory MPs, Redwood said: 'I’m very glad he’s come round to the logic of it. The difficult hand in these negotiations is the EU’s, not ours. We meet all of our objectives simply by leaving.'" [By Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli and Tom McTague via Politico.EU on 1-Nov-2017]