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Saturday, 21 January 2017

Winds Of Change: American Geopolitics 2017


A Seduction and Flirtation With America.
FundPortfolioManagement-FPM have analysed Donald J. Trump's Inauguration speech as the 45th President of the United States on Jan. 20, 2017. Speech was short and sweet,  to the point (one of the shortest speeches), which we have filtered into three themes below. We feel President Trump's brand has been consistently conveyed at least in rhetoric, and even apparently in policy. Soon after the Presidential swearing-in speech, the President's team put out a press release that they are withdrawing from the controversial Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP - trade deal with Asia), and keenness to re-negotiate the existing "NAFTA" trade agreement.

If we believe that the 45th President of United States wrote his own speech, and optimistically consider the pledges given with his high conviction attitude, then indeed our organisation's effort will be to hold him to the moral rectitude / uprightness he presented as a business man, and now as the most powerful man in the World. 

Our mechanism to enforce the President's veracity between rhetoric and reality is under our thesis of conveying his reputation. His past reputation is dubious not to say the least, but the stalwartness of his impressions and deeds in the Oval office is our time-line of watchfulness, under "NosmokeWithOutFire:OfReputation".

After internal dialogue, FPM have filtered the speech into three policy agenda, from the sworn-in administration:  

1) Against the Status Quo Political-Corporate Agenda:

We are transferring power from Washington, D.C., and giving it back to you, the people.”

Washington flourished – but the people did not share in its wealth. Politicians prospered – but the jobs left, and the factories closed. The establishment protected itself, but not the citizens of our country.”
January 20th 2017, will be remembered as the day the people became the rulers of this nation again.”
This American carnage stops right here and stops right now.
So to all Americans, in every city near and far, small and large, from mountain to mountain, and from ocean to ocean, hear these words: You will never be ignored again.”

2) Anti-Globalization of Trade, Migration, Etc:

For many decades we’ve enriched foreign industry at the expense of American industry... We’ve defended other nations’ borders while refusing to defend our own.”

We’ve made other countries rich while the wealth, strength, and confidence of our country has disappeared over the horizon.”

We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our product, stealing our companies and destroying our jobs. Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength.”

Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs, will be made to benefit American workers and American families.”
We will follow two simple rules: Buy American and Hire American.”

3) Less Foreign Policy Intervention:
We do not seek to impose our way of life on anyone, but rather to let it shine as an example for everyone to follow.”
At the bedrock of our politics will be a total allegiance to the United States of America, and through our loyalty to our country, we will rediscover our loyalty to each other.”
We will not fail. Our country will thrive and prosper again. We stand at the birth of a new millennium, ready to unlock the mysteries of space, to free the Earth from the miseries of disease, and to harness the energies, industries and technologies of tomorrow.”

In Brashness - So What?
FPM will be interpreting and tracking these broad scope Presidential pledges as they become specific policy commitment over the coming months. For example, TPP, which was already struggling to get passed in Washington under outgoing President Obama, is already shelved by incoming Trump administration under anti-globalisation theme. We believe we have identified an overriding principle that underpins some of the key themes.

For example, under the "Less Foreign Policy Intervention" mission, we expect the new administration to get congress and Senate to begin reducing its commitment to finance and support wars and regime-change in the Middle East. The war  is not merely for oil! This would be due to  America's reserves of oil being the largest already; but yet possibility of those energy reserves  being a "redundant asset" under fossil fuel bans due to climate change concerns.

Like most of the Americans who voted for President Trump, FPM believe he represents maverick hope for a foundering economy and country, weighed down by US$ 20 trillion of National Debt and 40 years of neoliberal Friedman monetary policy economics.
Yet the newly inaugurated President of the United States said in his realty salesman pitch style:
"From this day forward, a new vision will govern our land."
And the  morning after?

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